In its newest gold market report, precious metals consultancy Metals Focus projected a slight 1% increase in gold supply this year, while demand may contract 9%.
According to the Gold Focus 2025 report, average gold price may increase 35% in 2025 to $3,210 per ounce due to economic uncertainty, US tariff policy and ongoing geopolitical tensions, ongoing portfolio diversification, growing concerns about US debt and robust central bank gold demand.
Metals Focus estimates that net central banks buying would amount to 1,000 tonnes this year. In 2024, buying by official sector reached record of 1,086 tonnes, which was attributed to continued “de-dollarisation” driving central banks to increase their gold reserves.
Meanwhile, global mined output was up 0.6% year-on-year to 3,661 tonnes in 2024, setting a new record. This increase was supported by gains in Mexico, Canada and Ghana. In 2025, mined output is forecast to increase by 1% to a further record of 3,694 tonnes, supported by the commissioning of new mining projects.
The total demand was dented by a slump in gold jewellery fabrication which fell 9% to 2,011 tonnes in 2024 and is expected to decrease further by 16% this year with India and China accounting for much of this decline.
According to Metals Focus, recycling was strong throughout 2024, rising by 11% to reach 1,368 tonnes, the highest level in 12 years. A significant share of this growth came from China, which experienced a 26% increase. However, recycling is likely to remain flat in 2025.
Theodor Lisovoy, Managing Editor, Rough&Polished
