Norilsk Nickel has published its new metal markets review, in which it forecasts that platinum and palladium markets will remain nominally balanced in 2025-2026, not taking into account the investment demand.
However, with investment demand from ETF funds, retail buyers of bars and coins, as well as government and corporate structures, the deficit in the platinum market may amount to 0.2 million ounces in 2025, and 0.3 million ounces in 2026. At the same time, investment demand does not have a significant impact on the palladium market supply and demand, so the company expects it to remain in balance in 2025-2026. According to the report, platinum and, to a lesser extent, palladium prices rose sharply in mid-May due to increased platinum imports in China, where jewellers have started using platinum jewellery as an alternative to gold, the price of which had reached record levels.
In addition, U.S. investors have increased imports of platinum group metals (PGMs) amid tariff concerns. The jewellery sector, mainly due to Chinese manufacturers, remains the fastest-growing area of platinum demand, although it is unclear whether the recent surge in platinum imports will develop into a long-term trend.
At the same time, Nornickel expects palladium and platinum demand in the auto industry to decline by 3% to 7.5 million ounces and 7% to 2.7 million ounces in 2025, respectively, due to a 3% fall in the production of cars with internal combustion engines.
The company noted that in the long run, demand for PGMs will be supported not only by traditional industries such as the automotive, jewellery and chemical production, but also by a growing number of new applications. Among them are hydrogen-related technologies (fuel cells and electrolyzers), as well as advanced catalytic systems based on non-ferrous metals alloyed with PGMs. Additional expansion of PGM use is expected in the glass industry, especially in the production of fiberglass, and in the electronics sector.
Meanwhile, the company will maintain a stable level of PGM production in Russia in 2025 and expects it to grow moderately in 2026 amid the commissioning of new deposits.
Theodor Lisovoy, Managing Editor, Rough&Polished
