Norilsk Nickel, in its new metals market review, has lowered its global nickel supply surplus forecast to 120,000 tonnes in 2025, down from 150,000 tonnes previously, and to 130,000 tonnes in 2026.
The company noted that the final surplus will largely depend on the stability of demand for Class 1 nickel in China.
“We forecast that nickel consumption growth will be seen in the stainless steel, special steel and alloy sectors, while supply growth will be concentrated in Indonesia and China,” the company’s analysts noted.
"We also see potential production risks in Indonesia that could impact nickel output in the country, related to limited availability of nickel ore, higher royalties on the nickel industry and the ongoing decline in nickel ore grades," they added.
According to the company's estimates, about 25% of nickel producers are unprofitable at current prices, so despite a series of nickel production suspensions in 2024, more closures of unprofitable assets outside Indonesia are possible in the near future.
As for prices in 2025, according to Nornickel’s review, global markets are experiencing significant volatility due to increasing macroeconomic uncertainty. Against this background, nickel quotes have remained stable at $15,000 - $16,000 per tonne throughout the year.
Theodor Lisovoy, Managing Editor, Rough&Polished
