Norilsk Nickel expects the nickel market to remain relatively balanced this year and next, but structural risks of supply shortages remain in the longer term.
The company's metals market report forecasts global copper demand in 2025 at 27.3 million tonnes, with supply at 27.2 million tonnes. In 2026, the market is expected to grow, with demand rising to 28.1 million tonnes and supply to 28.3 million tonnes.
However, in the longer term, copper supply may come under pressure from declining ore grades, delays in expansion projects and a lack of investment in new mine development.
“The supply situation was exacerbated by supply disruptions in key mining regions, which further limited copper availability in the market and contributed to price growth. At the same time, demand remained stable, especially in China, where pre-tax buying and government stimulus measures continued to support industrial activity,” Nornickel analysts noted.
“However, a possible slowdown in demand growth in the second half of 2025, when the impact of trade tensions becomes more noticeable, limits the potential for further price growth.”
The company notes that copper prices continue to reflect the ongoing imbalance between limited supply and uneven demand. At the same time, there is a shortage of metal on the spot market.
Theodor Lisovoy, Managing Editor, Rough&Polished
