Commodity analysts at the World Bank expect gold prices to average around $4,700 per ounce this year, and to decline slightly in 2027, according to media reports.
The recent price correction likely reflects a partial reversal of the speculative trading, as momentum in gold and silver markets slowed in recent months, Kitco News reported with a reference to the World Bank.
The bank expects that average gold prices in 2026 will be 37% higher than in 2025, although analysts predict a 7% decrease next year. As for silver, the World Bank expects prices to average around $70 an ounce this year, up 76% from last year; however, prices are projected to fall by 7% next year.
"Given the sensitivity of precious metals prices to shifts in global risk sentiment, speculative demand, and macroeconomic conditions, the outlook remains subject to considerable uncertainty. On balance, risks to the baseline forecast remain tilted to the upside," analysts explained.
"A resurgence of global trade tensions or financial market volatility could trigger additional safe-haven inflows into gold and silver, pushing prices above current projections."
Downside risks for gold, which is considered a non-yield-bearing, safe-haven asset, include higher inflation caused by a rapid rise in energy prices and other commodities. This would increase the opportunity cost of holding precious metals.
At the same time, a sustained easing of geopolitical tensions could also soften safe-haven flows, while a sharper slowdown in central bank purchases could remove another important source of price support.
Theodor Lisovoy, Managing Editor, Rough&Polished
