After nearly three years of boom-and-bust price swings, lithium has staged a sharp comeback in 2026. But while prices have more than doubled from last year's lows, Bernstein argues the rally may still be in its middle innings rather than nearing its peak.
The brokerage believes that the tightening supplies and resilient battery demand creating conditions for prices to climb further into 2027.
Supply, meanwhile, faces structural constraints. Mining companies spent the past two years cutting capital expenditure after lithium prices collapsed from their 2022 peak, and Bernstein says new projects typically take around three years to move from final investment decision to production.
Although roughly 200,000 tonnes of previously curtailed capacity may gradually restart, the brokerage expects capacity additions to slow beyond 2026, increasing the risk of a supply deficit in 2027.
Importantly, Bernstein argues higher prices are unlikely to derail demand. Reflecting that view, the company raised its average lithium carbonate price forecast to about $25,000 per tonne for 2026 from $21,000 per tonne previously and to $32,500 per tonne for 2027 from $25,000 per tonne, while keeping its long-term estimate at $16,000 per tonne.
Alex Shishlo, Editor in Chief of the European Bureau, Rough&Polished
