Demand for metals essential for the development of green energy and high-tech industries will continue to grow rapidly, but their production and processing will remain concentrated in a limited number of countries, according to analysts at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
According to the organization's forecast, by 2040, global lithium demand will increase by 353% compared to 2024 levels. Demand for graphite will grow by 131%, nickel by 69%, rare earth metals by 65%, cobalt by 49%, and copper by 28%.
At the same time, supply remains highly concentrated. In 2025, 74% of the world's cobalt was mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and 67% of its nickel was mined in Indonesia. China retained its leading position in the production of rare earth metals (69%) and natural graphite (78%). Australia, Chile, and China remain the main lithium producers, accounting for approximately 72% of global output. A similarly high concentration is observed in raw material processing, where China and Indonesia hold leading positions, Kommersant reports.
The growing importance of critical metals is already impacting the global trade. According to UNCTAD, since 2020, various countries have introduced nearly 100 measures restricting the export of such products. Among the most common instruments are export licenses, duties, and outright bans on the export of raw materials. DRC, China, and Indonesia are the most active in using such measures.
Against this backdrop, major importers are seeking to reduce their dependence on a limited number of suppliers. The United States, the European Union, and Japan are investing in developing their own processing, diversifying supplies, and concluding long-term agreements with producers.
Alex Shishlo, Editor in Chief of the European Bureau, Rough&Polished
