The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)’ s recent ban on exports of copper and cobalt concentrates is unlikely to have a material impact on global markets, but could add a near-term risk premium to copper prices while details of the policy are clarified, BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has told Mining Weekly.
The Ministerial Order, signed on June 29 and published in August, prohibits exports of copper and cobalt concentrates with immediate effect, though one-year waivers may be granted under “strategic circumstances.”
The order also introduces a new tax regime for economically significant mining by-products, with a three-month transition period.
BMI said that the DRC has operated a de facto ban on unbeneficiated concentrate exports since the mid-2010s, with ad hoc exemptions.
The new policy represents a shift to a de jure ban with tighter waiver rules.
For copper, about 13% of the DRC's copper exports last year were in concentrate form, equating to roughly 400,000 tonnes of copper metal or about 1.7% of global mine production.
While this loss could push the copper market into deficit, BMI points to spare smelting capacity at the recently commissioned Kamoa-Kakula smelter, which has a nameplate capacity of 500,000 tonnes per year.
Neighbouring mines may be able to process concentrates there if waivers are not obtained, it said.
BMI said it is not revising down its DRC copper production forecasts.
For cobalt, it said, the ban is “even less impactful,” as almost all cobalt leaves the country as cobalt hydroxide, an intermediate product.
The more significant constraint remains the quota system introduced last year.
The policy shift has injected fresh bullish impetus into copper markets, with LME prices touching $14,369.50 per tonne on August 6, nearing historical peaks.
BMI predicts copper could average closer to $13,500 per tonne this year.
It maintained its cobalt price forecast at $25 per pound for 2026 and $22.50 per pound for 2027, and expects the DRC to lift its export cap to about 120,000 tonnes in 2027.
BMI warned that the development signals resource nationalism is likely to persist across Africa and could grow in scale and scope as commodity prices rise.
Mathew Nyaungwa, Editor-In-Chief, Rough & Polished
