The largest mining corporations’ profits for 2024 declined amid falling prices for iron ore and thermal coal. The performance of gold, aluminium and especially copper businesses contributed to the financial results, as their role in miners’ portfolios continues to grow, although Glencore experienced a number of specific problems due to its diversification into smelting capacities. In 2025, Rio Tinto and BHP will be able to increase their copper production to benefit from the prospects of this element which is considered key to the energy transition, while Glencore and Anglo American are expected to face temporary problems at their large-scale joint asset in Chile. Anglo is accelerating the implementation of its strategy aimed at the “simplification” of its portfolio in an attempt to exit the least profitable businesses.
Anglo American
Anglo’s consolidated revenue decreased by 12 percent in 2024 to $28.6 bn. EBITDA dropped by 15 percent to $8.46 bn. A 10-percent price reduction of its product ‘basket’ amid a difficult situation in the diamond market was partially offset by a cost reduction program (by $1.3 bn, ahead of the forecast). Profitability remained almost at the 2023 level, around 30 percent. Anglo’s net debt also remained close to the last year’s level of $10.6 bn, equivalent to 1.3x EBITDA.
Anglo’s final dividends were declared at $0.22, down 46 percent from a year ago.
At the same time, the company increased its operational cash flow to $9.4 bn from $8.1 bn thanks to a reduction in working capital (down $1.8 bn, with an accumulation of $1.2 bn a year earlier) due to a decreased in-process inventories at the Amplats’ enterprises and rough diamond inventories. Anglo’s capex slightly declined to the level of 2023, to $5.5 bn.
The main contribution to EBITDA was from copper and iron ores, which together accounted for 76 percent of EBITDA. In these same segments, there was a decrease in costs, in contrast to De Beers, where costs for the year increased by 31 percent amid a decrease in mining output.
De Beers was once again a ‘weak link’ in Anglo’s portfolio. Amid ongoing problems in the rough diamond market and short-term unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, Anglo wrote off $2.9 bn of the diamond miner’s book value. A year earlier, the write-offs amounted to $1.6 bn.
De Beers’ EBITDA for 2024 was negative, at $25 mn (it was a positive $72 mn a year ago). Consolidated revenue fell by 23 percent to $3.29 bn amid a 28 percent drop in sales and an increase in costs to $93 per carat from $71 per carat a year earlier.
Anglo has made progress in the implementation of its portfolio “simplification” strategy announced last year after its $49 bn takeover bid was cancelled by BHP. The strategy involves selling the company’s coal and nickel assets, demerging Amplats (with share offering at exchanges) and selling or demerging De Beers. With Anglo exiting the coal business and nickel assets, which is expected to be completed in the third quarter of this year, the company will receive gross proceeds of up to $5.3 bn.
The work to separate De Beers is well underway, according to Anglo, with action taken by the corporation “to strengthen cash flow in the near term and position De Beers for long-term success and value realization”. Given market conditions, Anglo hopes to complete the deal - sale or public offering - in the second half of the year, Anglo American chief executive Duncan Wanblad said.
The demerging of Amplats is scheduled to be completed in June this year, with the platinum producer’s initial public offering (IPO) on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and a subsequent offering on the London Stock Exchange. Anglo’s intentions are to initially retain 19.9 percent of Amplats’ shares, and to eventually exit the capital entirely, taking into account lock-up agreements.
The ‘updated’ Anglo American’s portfolio will be more profitable and sustainable, according to the company’s presentation. Copper will account for 60 percent, and iron ore - for 40 percent.
As far as its core copper business goes, Anglo has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with state-owned Codelco to jointly develop the neighboring Los Bronces and Andina deposits in Chile. The joint operating company is expected to coordinate the mining output targets at these assets and optimize the utilization of processing capacity without taking ownership of the assets.
Wanblad said that the agreement with Codelco was in line with Anglo’s plan to grow copper production by 30 percent to more than 1 mn tons by early 2030s. Los Bronces and Andina have a marked synergy potential; these deposits combined account for about 2 percent of the global copper resources, with around 60 mn tons of copper content.
In 2025, Anglo expects its production to decline across almost its entire portfolio. Copper output is set to decrease to 690,000 to 750,000 tons from 773,000 tons a year earlier, driven by lower grades at most Chile’s assets, where operations are heavily dependent on water supplies. Iron ore output is expected to be 57 to 61 mn tons compared to 61 mn tons in 2024.
BHP
BHP posted its lowest half-year profit in six years. The July-December figure fell by 23 percent to $5.08 bn in 2024. Iron ore demand declined due to a slowdown in China’s economy and, in particular, its struggling real estate sector.
Revenue fell by 8 percent to $25.2 bn due to lower prices for iron ore and coking coal, which was partly offset by higher copper prices. Underlying EBITDA decreased by 11 percent to $12.4 bn. Profitability margin dropped to 51 percent from 53 percent. Net operating cash flow declined by 6 percent to $8.3 bn.
Due to lower profit, the interim dividends fell to 50 cents per share from 72 cents per share a year earlier. The dividend payments made in accordance with the dividend policy were the lowest since 2017.
BHP’s capex for the half-year increased by 10 percent to $5.2 bn. The guidance for the 2025 financial year remained unchanged at around $10 bn, including almost half, $4.7 bn, that will come from increased copper production. BHP’s goal is to reach 2 bn tons of copper production by the mid-2030s through the development of existing assets and possible expansion in Chile.
The share of copper in EBITDA for the half-year increased up to 39 percent (or up to $5 bn) from 25 percent a year earlier amid rising sales and prices. BHP is ramping up its copper production, so copper output rose 10 percent in the July-December after a 19 percent increase from 2022 to 2024 financial years, thanks to its key asset Escondida in Chile (BHP owns 57 percent) producing high-grade ore.
The effect due to the half-year rise in copper prices was $0.5 bn for BHP. Although copper prices declined from their May 2024 peaks, they remained relatively strong due to solid fundamentals, including China’s plans aimed at stimulating its economy and the interest rate cuts in the USA that began in September, BHP says in its press release. Copper demand in China beats expectations as continued growth in the investments in electrical grid and the demand for consumer durables (such as air conditioners and electronics) offset the weak real estate sector.
BHP’s CEO Mike Henry said that the ongoing recovery in China’s economy and interest rate cuts by central banks were reviving the demand for iron ore and copper. “Potential trade tensions present a risk to the recovery in developed economies,” Henry said, adding that only 3 percent of revenues were directly affected by the rising tariffs in the USA. The company is not currently considering acquisitions and is ‘100 percent’ focused on organic revenue growth, BHP’s CEO assured.
In fiscal 2025, BHP expects its copper production to be 1.845 mn to 2.045 mn tons (compared to 1.865 mn tons in fiscal 2024), iron ore production is estimated at 255 mn to 265.5 mn tons (compared to 260 mn tons last year), and 33 mn to 38 mn tons of coking and thermal coal combined (compared to 37.7 mn last year).
Rio Tinto
Rio Tinto’s financial results also came under pressure due to weaker prices for iron ore, which accounts for 65 percent of the company’s cash flow. However, Rio has proven to be more resilient than its competitors and benefited primarily from strong growth in copper production at its project in Mongolia, as well as rising copper, bauxite, and aluminium prices, which offset weaker prices for iron ore.
Rio Tinto’s net profit decreased by 7.6 percent to $10.9 bn, while free cash flow (FCF) fell by 27 percent to $5.6 bn. But other indicators did not reduce as significantly as those of other giants: revenue dropped just by 1 percent to $53.7 bn, and EBITDA was down 2 percent to $23.3 bn.
Rio’s total dividends for 2024 will be down 8 percent compared to 2023. The company’s net debt increased by 30 percent to $5.5 bn. An 11 percent drop in iron ore prices resulted in a 19 percent decline in revenue for this segment to $16.2 bn, with production levels remaining virtually stable. Copper segment’s revenue increased by 75 percent to $3.4 bn, with copper prices up 8 percent year-on-year. The share of copper business in the cash flow for the year increased up to 14 percent compared to 3 percent in 2023.
Copper production increased by 13 percent for the year, supported by Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi reaching design targets, and strong performance at Escondida (Rio owns 30 percent). After a 28 percent growth in output in 2024, copper mining output is expected to increase by 50 percent in 2025, and is estimated at 500,000 tons by 2028 to 2036, making Oyu Tolgoi the world’s fourth-largest mine by volume. Rio is expected to produce 780,000 to 850,000 tons of copper in 2025.
Rio also benefited from stable production and good pricing for aluminium and especially bauxite in 2024. An 8 percent increase in prices for aluminium and a 26 percent increase in bauxite prices, coupled with a modest increase in production over the year, resulted in an increase in revenue for this segment by 61 percent to $3.7 bn.
In its presentation, Rio emphasizes the importance of its aluminium business. Demand for aluminium semi-finished products in China increased by 21 percent from 2019 to 2024, driven mainly by the energy transition.
Rio forecasts an iron ore output of 323 mn to 338 mn tons in 2025, compared to 328.6 mn tons last year. The potential decline is due to cyclones on the west coast of Australia, which are hampering shipments. Aluminium output is expected to be 3.25 mn to 3.45 mn tons, on average slightly higher compared to 3.3 mn tons in 2024.
Glencore
Glencore Plc, a diversified mining and trading company, posted a net loss of $1.63 bn in 2024, which surprised the analysts, whose consensus forecast was a net profit of $2.01 bn. The reason was the decline in prices for thermal coal, which gave Glencore record profits two years ago amid the energy crisis, and cobalt. Coal prices were under pressure from high production and inventory levels in India and China, and declined to mid-2021 lows in early 2025.
Impairments due to low coal price at Glencore’s South African coal assets were part of a $2.27 bn write-off recognized by the company, which impacted the financial results. Glencore also recognized a $419 mn impairment due to the mothballing of its Koniambo nickel operation in New Caledonia amid weak nickel market conditions. The write-off also impacted Glencore’s copper and zinc smelters, which were hit by a sharp drop in treatment charges (TCs) amid tighter ore supplies. Glencore said it was conducting a strategic review of its downstream assets.
The situation was partly offset by contributions from the coal assets (EVR) acquired from Teck, and higher prices for copper and gold. Glencore has benefited from a 23 percent rise in gold prices in 2024, as the majority shareholder of Kazakhstan’s Kazzinc, a major gold producer.
Glencore’s revenue increased by 6 percent to $230.9 bn, but adjusted EBITDA fell by 16 percent to $14.36 bn. The EBITDA from the production unit dropped by 20 percent to $10.6 bn. Adjusted profitability of mining assets increased for the year to 28 percent from 26 percent a year earlier, while profitability of thermal coal assets and coking coal fell to 36 percent from 49 percent in 2023.
Glencore’s net debt in late 2024 increased to $11.2 bn from $4.9 bn a year earlier, mainly due to $7 bn for the purchase of EVR.
In 2025, Glencore, just like Anglo American, expects copper production to decline to 850,000 to 910,000 tons from 951.6 tons in 2024. Lower expectations are explained by problems with the availability of water resources at South American assets and the extraction of lower-grade ore at Chile’s Collahuasi mine, in which Glencore and Anglo own 44 percent each. Coking coal production will increase due to the acquisition of EVR, to 30 mn to 35 mn tons from 19.9 mn tons last year. Glencore, on the contrary, is reducing thermal coal production in response to weaker prices. In total, copper-equivalent production will increase to 3.6 mn tons this year from 3.3 mn tons in 2024.
Sergey Bondarenko for Rough&Polished
