M&A in the copper industry: What are the market signals?

The main advantage of copper is its versatility: it has properties such as high electrical conductivity and corrosion resistance which make it useful in almost all key industrial sectors. This allows the demand for copper to remain high, provided that the whole industry keeps on growing, - regardless of whether the demand is due to the development of ‘green’ technologies that have been a recognized driver of the growing copper consumption in recent years, or due to the developing defense sector. This is also confirmed by the recent US policy: in August 2025, the country initiated the registration of copper in the list of critical minerals for the first time, recognizing its strategic importance for the economy and national security, regardless of the current environmental agenda.

Since the end of 2022, world copper prices have shown a steady upward trend despite fluctuations (Fig. 1). The average monthly price for copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has shown a 21% increase over three years, from USD 7,961 per ton in August 2022 to USD 9,646 per ton in August 2025, while it reached USD 10,129 per ton at its peak (in May 2024). According to the S&P Global’s forecast, the price for copper is expected to exceed USD 10,000 per ton in 2028-2029.

Fig. 1. Dynamics of average monthly prices for refined copper (grade A) on the LME (cash settlement) from August 2022 to August 2025, USD per ton.

The rise in copper prices amid the absence of significant new discoveries of copper deposits and the increase in the cost of copper production due to factors such as the depletion of easily accessible reserves and the transition to underground mining, fuels the interest in mergers and acquisitions (M&A). From 2023 to 2025, a number of purchase and sale transactions for over USD 1 bn (Table 1) were concluded for copper projects and copper-bearing ore deposits, as well as operating mines, including several very large ones.

Key transactions

Table 1. Largest M&A deals in the copper industry from 2023 to 2025.

Year*	Subject of the deal	Project location	Stage	Seller	Buyer	Share, %	Value, USD mn
2025**	Merger of peers: Anglo American Plc and Teck Resources Ltd.						53,000
2025	Filo Corp. (Au-Ag-Cu project Filo del Sol)	Argentina/Chile	Exploration	Filo Corp.	Lundin Mining Corp., BHP Group Ltd.	100	2,900
2025	Cu-Zn mine Neves-Corvo and Cu-Zn-Pb mine Zinkgruvan	Portugal, Sweden	Operation	Lundin Mining Corp.	Boliden AB	100	1,520
2025**	MAC Copper Ltd. (Cu mine CSA)	Australia	Operation	MAC Copper Ltd.	Harmony Gold Mining Company Ltd	100	1,030
2025**	Au-Cu project Reko Diq	Pakistan	Preparation for operation	Government of Pakistan	Manara Minerals Investment Company	10-20	500-1,000
2025	Au-Cu project Josemaria	Argentina	Preparation for operation	Lundin Mining Corp.	BHP Group Ltd.	50	690
2025**	Au-Cu project Winu	Australia	Exploration	Rio Tinto Group	Sumitomo Metal Mining Co	30	430.4
2025	Lumina Gold Corp. (Au-Cu project Cangrejos)	Ecuador	Exploration	Lumina Gold Corp.	CMOC Group Ltd.	100	419
2025**	Cu-Au project Alacran	Colombia	Preparation for operation	Cordoba Minerals Corp.	JCHX Mining Management Ltd.	100	up to 228
2025	New World Resources Ltd. (Cu project Antler and others)	USA	Exploration	New World Resources Ltd.	Kinterra Capital GP Corp.	100	162.5
2025	Xanadu Mines Ltd. (Cu-Au project Kharmagtai)	Mongolia	Exploration	Xanadu Mines Ltd.	Bastion Minerals Ltd.	100	102.4
2024	Cupros Capital Ltd. (Cu mine Khoemacau)	Botswana	Operation	Cupros Capital Ltd.	MMG Ltd.	100	1 875
2024	Mopani Copper Mines Plc (Cu mine Mopani)	Zambia	Operation	ZCCM Investments Holdings	International Resources Holding	51	1,100
2024	Cu mine Quebrada Blanca	Chile	Operation	Empresa Nacional de Minería	Codelco	10	520
2024	SCM Minera Lumina Copper Chile (Cu-Mo mine Caserones)	Chile	Operation	JX Advanced Metals Corp.	Lundin Mining Corp.	19	350
2023	OZ Minerals Ltd. (Au-Cu mines Prominent Hill and Carrapateena)	Australia	Operation	OZ Minerals Ltd.	BHP Group Ltd.	100	6,400
2023	Cu mine CSA	Australia	Operation	Glencore Plc.	MAC Copper Ltd.	100	1,100
2023	SCM Minera Lumina Copper Chile (Cu-Mo mine Caserones)	Chile	Operation	JX Advanced Metals Corp.	Lundin Mining Corp.	51	950
2023	CRCC-Tongguan Investment Co., Ltd. (Cu mine Mirador)	Ecuador	Operation	CRCC-Tongguan Investment Co., Ltd.	Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd.	70	930
2023	Au-Cu mine Northparkes	Australia	Operation	CMOC Group Ltd.	Evolution Mining Ltd.	80	475
2023	Cu project MARA	Argentina	Exploration	Pan American Silver Corp.	Glencore Plc.	56,25	475
2023	Copper Mountain Mining Corp. (Cu mine Copper Mountain)	Canada	Operation	Copper Mountain Mining Corp.	Hudbay Minerals Inc.	100	439
2023	Cu project La Granja	Peru	Exploration	Rio Tinto Group	First Quantum Minerals Ltd.	55	105
2023	Cu-Zn project San Nicolás	Mexico	Exploration	Teck Resources Ltd.	Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.	50	580

Notes: Compiled from open data provided by the companies and taken from the media outlets;

the table includes the deals worth over USD 100 mn;

* – the year of completing the deal is indicated unless indicated otherwise;

** – the deal has not been completed as of September 2025.

In early September 2025, an event occurred significant not only for the copper industry but for the entire mining industry as a whole: Anglo American and Teck Resources announced their merger. Based on the companies’ market capitalization, the deal is valued at approximately USD 53 bn, which is the second-largest merger in the mining industry after the USD 90 bn merger of Glencore and Xstrata in 2013.

If the deal is successful, a new copper giant will appear - the Anglo Teck company. Anglo American shareholders will own 62.4% of the new company, while Teck shareholders will own 37.6%, with the deal being called a “merger of peers.” The deal is subject to regulatory approval and could be completed within 12 to 18 months. Anglo Teck’s headquarter will be in Canada, with its primary listing in London.

Anglo American’s and Teck’s assets include stakes in the world’s largest copper mines, Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca, in Chile, respectively, and other major assets as well. The deal is expected to deliver annual cost savings and efficiency gains of USD 800 mn by the fourth year after completion.

As for other industry players, BHP Group demonstrated the most active business expansion dynamics during the period under review, the company closed two major deals: it acquired Australia’s OZ Minerals company for USD 6.4 bn in 2023, and bought Canada’s Filo Corp. jointly with Lundin Mining for USD 2.9 bn. in 2025.

BHP Group made an offer to OZ Minerals in mid-2022 to purchase 100% of its shares; after a series of negotiations and approvals, an AUD 9.6 bn (USD 6.4 bn) deal was completed in May 2023. As a result of the deal, BHP acquired the Carrapateena and Prominent Hill copper mines in South Australia located closely to the company’s Olympic Dam mine. The new facilities allowed BHP to increase its copper production by about 7%. The deposits’ ores contain also gold.

The BHP’s next major deal was made in partnership with Canada’s Lundin Mining company. The subject of the deal was Filo Corp. (also registered in Canada), which at that time owned the rights to the Filo del Sol gold-silver-copper project in the Vicuña region on the border between Chile and Argentina. The deal was announced in July 2024, approved in September, and completed in January 2025. BHP paid CAD 2 bn for its stake in Filo Corp. in cash, and Lundin Mining paid in cash (CAD 877.8 mn) and also using its own shares (94.1 mn shares); the final deal value was about CAD 4 bn (USD 2.9 bn). BHP and Lundin set up a joint venture, Vicuña Corp., on a 50/50 basis, to develop the Filo del Sol deposit, as well as the Josemaria gold-copper deposit located 10 km away from it in Argentina. The rights to develop the Josemaria deposit were previously fully owned by Lundin Mining, but BHP bought a 50% stake for USD 690 mn in January 2025. Thus, the companies plan to jointly develop the Filo del Sol and Josemaria deposits in stages; and while the Josemaria deposit is already at the stage of preparation for operation, the geological exploration work has not yet been completed at the Filo del Sol one. The plans are that the joint venture will spend USD 312 mn on various works at the deposits in 2025.

The three largest M&A deals in the copper industry over the past three years include the MMG’s acquisition of Cupros Capital Ltd., the indirect owner of the Khoemacau copper mine in Botswana, for USD 1.88 bn. The MMG mining company is a subsidiary of China Minmetals Corporation. Cupros Capital Ltd. is a Canadian company owned by a consortium of international investors led by Cupric Canyon Capital L.P. The definitive agreement for making the deals was concluded in November 2023, and the deal was completed in March 2024. The annual production capacity of the Khoemacau mine commissioned in 2021 has 50,000 to 60,000 tons of copper, with a potential increase to 135,000-155,000 tons.

In April 2025, Lundin Mining completed the sale of part of its assets to Sweden’s Boliden AB for USD 1.5 bn. The subjects of the deal were polymetallic mines, including the copper-zinc Neves-Corvo mine in Portugal and the copper-polymetallic Zinkgruvan one in Sweden. The deal allowed Lundin to focus on the Filo del Sol and the Josemaria projects in South America, which it is implementing jointly with BHP. Boliden AB, in turn, purchased operating mining enterprises in Europe, which is its area of ​​​​operation.

In addition, Lundin Mining concluded two deals with Japan’s JX Advanced Metals Corp. in 2023-2024 on purchasing the shares in the Caserones copper-molybdenum mine in Chile. In 2023, the companies entered into an agreement to purchase and sell a 51% stake in the mine for USD 950 mn, and another 19% - for USD 350 mn in 2024. Thus, Lundin consolidated a 70% stake in the asset, while JX retained a 30% stake. The total value of the deals was USD 1.3 bn. The annual capacity of the Caserones mine is about 100 thousand tons of copper in concentrate.

The sale of a majority stake (51%) in Mopani Copper Mines Plc. that operates the Mopani copper mine in Zambia was among the most difficult and controversial deals in the copper industry. The seller was Zambia’s state-owned company ZCCM Investments Holdings, and the buyer was International Resources Holding from the UAE. The main purpose of the USD 1.1 bn deal was to increase copper production up to 200 thousand tons by 2027 (in 2022, the output was about 73 thousand tons) and restructure the debt to Glencore, the previous owner of the mine that sold it to ZCCM in 2021 but did not receive the full sum of money. The deal was completed in March 2024, but its result is still being contested in court. The lawsuit was filed by the former Zambian deputy minister of trade; according to him, the mine is strategic and the deal should have been approved by the country’s parliament. The Zambian minister of mines, in turn, stated that this was not a sale but a ‘dilution’ of the ZCCM shares from 100% to 49%, so the procedure fall outside the requirement for an approval by the parliament. The outcome of this case will determine not only the future of the Mopani mine, but will also create an important legal precedent for future transactions with state assets in Zambia.

The sale and purchase transaction of the CSA underground copper mine in Australia, or rather two transactions, are also of interest. In 2023, the mine was sold by Glencore to MAC Copper Ltd., registered on the island of Jersey (UK), for USD 1.1 bn (including USD 750 mn in cash, USD 100 mn - in shares, and the rest via reserve and deferred payments). Glencore retained the right to a royalty of 1.5% of the net smelter return during the life of the mine. MAC Copper was initially created as a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), that is, its main goal was to buy an asset and then resell it. It attracted significant debt financing to complete the deal. In late May 2025, MAC Copper entered into an agreement to sell 100% of its shares to South Africa’s Harmony Gold Mining Company Ltd. for USD 1.03 bn. The deal is expected to be completed by the end of 2025.

In January 2025, a deal was announced for the high-profile Reko Diq project in Pakistan. Saudi Arabia’s Manara Minerals (a joint venture between state-owned mining company Ma’aden and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, PIF) had been in talks to buy a 10% to 20% stake in the project from the government of Pakistan for USD 500 mn to USD 1,000 mn. Some media outlets reported that the federal cabinet had approved a deal to sell a 15% stake for USD 540 mn, but Pakistan’s oil minister said the deal had not yet been approved, but that negotiations were progressing well. The Reko Diq gold-copper deposit is among the largest undeveloped projects in the world, with an expected mine capacity of 195 thousand tons of copper and 9 tons of gold per year during 40 years.

The history of the Reko Diq project offers a notable example of interaction with the government of Pakistan. In the early 2000s, Tethyan Copper, a joint venture between Canada’s Barrick Gold and Chile’s Antofagasta, was exploring the Reko Diq deposit. Tethyan owned 75% of the project, while the government of the Baluchistan province owned 25%. After the company invested about USD 220 mn in exploration, the government of Pakistan rejected the mining application in 2011, which resulted in halting the work and a multi-year legal lawsuit. In 2019, an international arbitration court ordered Pakistan to pay a USD 5.84 bn compensation to Tethyan, which was an unaffordable sum for the country. As a result, the parties reached a new agreement in 2022, according to which Barrick Gold became an operator of the project with a 50% share, and the remaining 50% share belongs to Pakistan (25% of shares are owned by three state-owned companies, and 25% - by the province of Baluchistan). Barrick’s plans are to put the deposit into operation in 2028.

Saudi Arabia’s interest in the project lies in the implementation of the government’s Vision 2030 program, aimed at increasing the non-oil revenues and achieving its climate goals. Copper is required for the development of ‘green’ technologies; and since the country’s mineral raw materials base is limited, Saudi Arabia is looking for options abroad. In this case, the Reko Diq project seems to be a very good option, because the cultural affinity and political ties of the Islamic world’s countries can contribute to successful negotiations.

Key market trends and signals

Analyzing the largest (over USD 1 bn) and major (over USD 100 mn) M&A deals in the copper industry over the past three years (Table 1), a number of conclusions can be drawn.

The key region for locating the assets - objects of the deals - is South America, primarily Chile and Argentina, as well as Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. This is the world’s main copper-producing region, and its role in future is expected to grow due to the potential expansion of the mineral resources base. The main risks are associated with difficult climatic, as well as mining and geological conditions, infrastructure limitations, water supply problems and socio-political factors, including frequent strikes at mines.

A significant number of deals (5 out of 24, including one asset sold twice) were concluded on the Australian copper mines and projects. Australia is traditionally attractive to investors due to its stable political situation, developed infrastructure and a high level of development of the mining industry. Africa is also of interest to regional investors, but political risks are still high in this region.

There is a chance that a new ‘copper giant’ - AngloTeck - can emerge in 2026-2027, which can spur other stakeholders to consolidate.

New players have appeared in the industry as the investors from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) - following the Chinese companies - have entered the market where companies from Australia and Canada have been the leaders traditionally. Given the countries’ policy of moving away from the oil-based economy, their role may grow in the future. In this respect, the possible deal between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia on the sale of a share in the Reko-Dik project is also an important signal.

The deals completed in 2023-2024 were largely made for operating mines, while in 2025, they were mainly made for the deposits that were at various stages of exploration. This may be due to a sharp rise in copper prices in the first half of 2024, which encouraged companies to make higher-risk investments.

In general, high activity of companies and a significant share of large-scale deals promise favorable prospects for the copper industry. The shift in investors’ focus from existing production to exploration projects is indicative of a long-term optimism and their willingness to take on higher risks to secure future supplies. The formation of new giant companies could bring cardinal changes to the industry. The participation of new strategic investors with significant capital, primarily from the Middle East, can also change the competitive environment significantly. Their focus on long-term goals of the diversification of the economy, and not just on immediate financial returns, is likely to intensify the competition for quality assets and result in further growth in their value. This creates both new opportunities for partnerships and serious challenges for traditional market players.

Anastasia Smolnikova for Rough&Polished