Botswana targets control of De Beers by end of October: Mission impossible?

Botswana has openly expressed its desire to snap up a controlling stake in the diamond company, De Beers, which is up for sale by its parent company, Anglo American, as part of a major restructuring.

The southern African country currently owns a 15% stake in the diamond giant while Anglo controls the remaining 85% shareholding.

Botswana President Duma Boko said last month that his country is pushing to finalise a deal to acquire a majority stake in De Beers by the end of October.

"We are more than ready for the transaction, and we've said the transaction must be concluded by the end of October," Boko said in an interview with Bloomberg in New York. "It's a matter of economic sovereignty for Botswana."

The end of October is nigh, and there are no signs of Botswana clinching the deal.

Rather, it appears as if Anglo prefers other buyers to Botswana.

I say so because recent reports citing Anglo chief executive Duncan Wanblad as saying that Gaborone will join direct negotiations with one or two shortlisted bidders for the sale of the mining giant's 85% stake in De Beers.

"This isn't going to be the classical first round, second round sale process that you would ordinarily receive for businesses of this type," he was quoted as saying by the Financial Times at the publication's annual Mining Summit.

Wanblad didn't reveal the shortlisted buyers, but interest has come from at least six consortia.

His statement shows that Anglo didn't consider Botswana as a serious buyer.

The Anglo head, however, made reference to Angola's interest in a De Beers minority stake.

"It's really positive news that the government of Angola has expressed an interest in taking some ownership," Wanblad said.

Time running out

While Botswana had set an end-of-October target to conclude the deal, Anglo appeared more realistic as its chief executive set the process to conclude within six months.

Botswana's bid appears to be an impossible mission due to the financial capacity to acquire a controlling stake, let alone the time left to conclude the deal.

Anglo values De Beers at about $5 billion, though analysts at UBS estimate the sale could generate between $3 billion and $4 billion, given challenging market conditions.

However, President Boko revealed that Botswana is in talks with other entities, including Oman's sovereign wealth fund, to help finance the acquisition that would lift the state's interest above 50%.

In August, I spoke with independent diamond analyst Paul Zimnisky, who said in 2011, Botswana had an opportunity to increase its stake in De Beers amidst the Oppenheimer sale, but felt at the time it would have been too disruptive to the nation's balance sheet.

"Today brings a similar situation in that there is an opportunity to expand its stake, but the Botswana economy is in a somewhat precarious state following a multi-year lull in the diamond industry," he said then.

Zimnisky opined that it would be in Botswana's best interest to focus more on diversifying the economy rather than doubling down on diamonds.

"I do think the diamond industry could still have a bright future ahead if everyone plays their cards right, but it's risky to be all-in on one industry," said Zimnisky in the August interview.

"Secondly, when it comes to running a business, I think public-private partnerships tend to work best when the government does not have the controlling share and instead leans on a strong private partner."

This, I think, is the arrangement that Anglo prefers, hence its announcement that it would let Botswana be part of direct negotiations with the shortlisted bidders.

Sad development

Botswana relies heavily on the sector, with diamonds typically accounting for 30% of government revenue and about 80% of foreign exchange earnings.

De Beers' $189 million loss in the first half of 2025 meant depressed revenue for the southern African country's coffers.

In June, Botswana announced that it would cut its 2025 economic growth forecast to nearly zero due to a prolonged slump in the global diamond industry.

Botswana's finance minister, Ndaba Gaolathe, had projected 3.3% growth in February, anticipating a diamond market recovery.

He also forecast a 2025/26 deficit of 7.56% of GDP, down from 9% the previous year.

Botswana's central bank also took measures to weaken its currency in response to growing economic pressures.

In early July, the Bank of Botswana adjusted its exchange rate policy, permitting the pula to depreciate by up to 2.76% against a currency basket in 2024—nearly double its original target of 1.51%.

At the time, the pula had already depreciated by 3.35% against the US dollar since the beginning of the year, ranking as Africa's fifth-worst-performing currency.

The knock on the economy saw S&P Global Ratings downgrading the country's long-term credit rating to 'BBB' from 'BBB+' in September 2025.

Given these developments, one understands Botswana's desperation to gain control of De Beers in what President Boko calls a "matter of economic sovereignty".

The southern African country feels entitled to control De Beers as it not only contributes about 70% of the group's output, but its performance has a serious bearing on its economy, which remains heavily reliant on the diamonds.

It also seeks to exert greater influence over the global supply chain and to champion natural diamonds, as President Boko claimed.

While Botswana seeks to achieve the unthinkable, it doesn't appear as if Anglo shares its desire to take control of De Beers, nor is it practical for the country to gain financial muscle to lift the weight of the transaction.

It's not far-fetched to dub this mission impossible.

Mathew Nyaungwa, Editor-In-Chief, Rough & Polished