The global cobalt market is currently undergoing a transformation due to the actions of the main cobalt producer, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). It is transitioning to strict government export control due to a market glut and prices bottoming out in early 2025. These measures have since resulted in higher prices, but could negatively impact the demand for cobalt in the long term and make the DRC’s position worse.
Cobalt consumption
Cobalt is an important raw material for the production of battery materials, superalloys, heat-resistant alloys, cutting tools, magnetic materials, petrochemical catalysts, pharmaceuticals, and glazes.
According to the Cobalt Institute, global cobalt consumption in 2024 was 222,000 tonnes. Cobalt was mainly used in the production of batteries for electric vehicles (43%) and portable electronic devices (30%), and superalloy smelting accounted for 8% of total cobalt consumption.
Consequently, demand for cobalt is primarily driven by demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and electronic devices. BloombergNEF forecasts that electric vehicles (EV) sales will more than double by 2030 compared to 2024, from 17.6 mn units to 39 mn units. The main growth is expected in China and emerging markets (Vietnam, Thailand, and Brazil), while sales in the USA are expected to decline.
At the same time, it’s worth noting that the share of cobalt in precursors for the most widely used lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt-oxide (NMC) batteries is steadily declining. While the precursor in NMC 111 batteries consisted of equal amounts of nickel, cobalt, and manganese (33% each), the cobalt content in NMC 622 batteries was reduced to 20%, and in NMC 721 and NMC 811 batteries - to 10%. Active work is also underway to develop cobalt-free batteries. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries are the most promising in this regard.
Geography of cobalt mining
As mentioned above, the DRC is the world’s leading cobalt producer. According to USGS, the country produced 220,000 tonnes of cobalt in 2024, accounting for almost 76% of global production (290,000 tonnes). Other major producers include Indonesia (10%) and Russia (3%).
In the DRC, cobalt is recovered as an associated component while mining the copper at the copper sandstone deposits of the African Copper Belt in the south of the country, stretching for almost 700 km. Key deposits include Kisanfu, Tenke Fungurume, and Mutanda. The bulk of cobalt production is provided by China’s CMOC Group Limited (formerly known as China Molybdenum Company Limited) that operates the country’s two largest mines - Kisanfu and Tenke Fungurume. In 2024, the company mined 114,200 tonnes of cobalt. Other major companies also include the Swiss company Glencore (Mutanda mine) and the African division of Eurasian Resources Group (Metalkol RTR technogenic deposits).
Some quantity of the DRC’s cobalt is mined by artisanal miners, including illegal mining and the use of child labor. This is one of the key problems facing the cobalt industry that has prompted increased efforts to develop cobalt-free batteries. The military conflict between the DRC and Rwanda in 2022–2025 exacerbated the difficult social and economic situation in the country, although it did not directly impact the cobalt production, as the military operations were far from the copper-cobalt mines.
In Indonesia, cobalt is recovered as an associated component while mining the nickel at lateritic deposits, the largest of which are located on the islands of Halmahera and Sulawesi. Most mines are operated by joint ventures between Chinese and Indonesian companies. Indonesia became the world’s second-largest cobalt producer quite recently, in 2022, demonstrating explosive growth, as its cobalt production was less than 3,000 tonnes in 2021, 9,500 tonnes in 2022, 28,000 tonnes in 2024, and the country could reach 40,000 to 50,000 tonnes in 2025. This growth is driven by the development of high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) technology that allows the extraction of cobalt from low-grade nickel ores previously considered unsuitable for this purpose. Moreover, the production cost of this cobalt is very low, as the nickel provides the bulk of the added value.
In Russia, the main source of cobalt is the complex ores of the Norilsk ore district, the largest of which - the Oktyabrskoye and the Talnakhskoye ore deposits - provide the bulk of the country’s cobalt production. Mining is carried out by MMC Norilsk Nickel.
Canada, Australia, and the Philippines are also among the major cobalt producers.
Situation in the cobalt market
By early 2022, the global cobalt market had recovered from the decline caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (Figure 1). At the same time, Indonesia began ramping up its cobalt production capacity in a large-scale, which, coupled with increased production in the DRC, resulted in excess supply and a new phase of decline in cobalt prices. In February 2025, the market reached a multi-year low, with the monthly average price (settlement) of 1 tonne of refined cobalt on the London Metal Exchange declining to $21,600.
Figure 1 – Refined cobalt price dynamics on the London Metal Exchange (LME) from 2021 to 2025, USD/t. Source: Trading Economics
In response, at the end of February 2025, the Strategic Minerals Market Regulation and Control Management Committee (ARECOMS) of the DRC imposed a complete ban on cobalt exports for four months. This pushed prices upward, so by March, the average cobalt price on the LME had risen to $31,100/t, but then plateaued. Cobalt inventories in the market remained high, so the ban was extended in June.
In early September, prices for cobalt surged again, and in mid-October 2025, ARECOMS lifted the ban. At the same time, the government introduced a strict quota system that will be in effect until 2027. The new system imposes the restrictions as follows:
• only 18,125 tonnes of cobalt may be exported until the end of 2025 (as of November-December, the quotas are approximately 7,250 tonnes per month);
• an annual export ‘ceiling’ of 96,600 tonnes was set for 2026-2027 (approximately half of the actual production capacity in 2024);
The DRC’s mining companies received quotas based on their cobalt production:
• CMOC Group received the largest quota as the largest cobalt producer;
• Glencore received the second-largest quota;
• Eurasian Resources Group received the third-largest quota.
Furthermore, the fourth-largest quota was allocated to the state-owned DRC’s company Entreprise Générale du Cobalt (EGC) holding a monopoly on the purchasing of cobalt from artisanal miners. This legalizes the artisanal sector and integrates it into official exports.
Companies’ reactions to the introduction of a quota system were divided; so Glencore generally supported the measure, while CMOC expressed strong dissatisfaction.
Glencore stated that a stable price is necessary for lifting the complete export ban, and quotas could help manage the market oversupply. In its production report for Q3 2025, Glencore confirmed its intention to export cobalt strictly within the allocated quotas. The company noted that it has sufficient inventories to cover the quotas and will focus on copper production, storing its surplus of cobalt domestically.
CMOC received the largest quota, but it only covers about a third of the company’s production. The Kisanfu mine reached its full production capacity in mid-2023 only and has not yet established a significant base. CMOC’s trading division was forced to declare force majeure on cobalt sales contracts back in June 2025, and the new quotas do not allow the company to fully meet its contractual customer commitments.
The need to store cobalt is complicated by the fact that it is primarily produced as hydroxide, a lumpy paste with a high moisture content. Long-term storage of cobalt hydroxide requires to control humidity, temperature, and exposure to air in order to minimize oxidation and carbonation and prevent the product degradation. This product is typically stored in bags outdoors. Therefore, the companies will inevitably face increased costs for ensuring proper conditions for storage of cobalt.
Restrictive measures also increase the risk of the growing smuggling problem, requiring the government of the DRC to tighten the control over transboundary shipments of cobalt products and ensure their proper labeling.
Nevertheless, the measures introduced have produced results, so in October 2025, the monthly average price of refined cobalt (settlement) on the LME soared to $42,500 per tonne, and continued to rise in November.
According to experts, further increases in cobalt prices could accelerate the transition to LFP batteries, with their performance already suitable for mass production of everyday vehicles. Furthermore, the projected rise in cobalt prices will coincide with an expected sharp decline in EV sales in the USA amid the Trump administration’s abandonment of greenhouse gas emissions reduction policies.
An alternative option could be to strengthen the role of Indonesia, as well as other cobalt suppliers such as Australia, Canada, and Russia.
Conclusion
A paradoxical situation has developed in the cobalt market as the companies in the DRC are forced to continue mining and stockpiling cobalt products in an attempt to offset costs by selling their main component - copper - and facing a negative reaction from buyers. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s producers have plans to ramp up their capacities, creating an imbalance in the market because cobalt supply continues to grow thanks to HPAL projects, where the metal is extracted at virtually no additional cost as a byproduct of nickel production with close to zero or even negative costs. Thus, the DRC risks becoming a ‘cobalt warehouse’, and Indonesia can become a new market leader. Moreover, the measures introduced by the government of the DRC to save the market could be a driver of a massive shift to alternative batteries, finally undermining the monopoly of the African cobalt powerhouse.
Anastasia Smolnikova for Rough&Polished
