In November 2025, China suspended some of the restrictions on exports of rare-earth elements (REEs, also called rare-earth metals, or rare earths) imposed in October and began granting the first ‘general licenses’ in December - individually, to specific foreign buyers. The easing of restrictions is valid until November 2026, so the pause is more likely to give some time to market players than to resolve the problem itself. The global race for rare earth metals continues, with the United States and the European Union remaining the main participants implementing projects both within their own territories and abroad. Let’s assess how far they have progressed in moving away from their dependence upon China.
The USA: Money Talks
The leader of the U.S. rare earth industry is MP Materials that operates a full production cycle for rare earth metals - from raw material mining to the manufacturing of NdFeB magnets. Meanwhile, the company’s development progressed rapidly: in 2018, MP Materials resumed mining at the Mountain Pass deposit in California (the second-largest REE mine by volume in the world after China’s Bayan Obo REE ore deposit); in 2022, it restored the mine’s REE separation factory; in 2024, the company commissioned its new Independence downstream center for rare earth metal and NdFeB-magnet production in Texas with an annual capacity of 1,000 tonnes (with the potential to expand to 3,000 tonnes); and in 2026, it announced the start of the engineering phase of another rare earth magnet manufacturing facility - the 10X factory (also in Texas), with a capacity of 7,000 tonnes per year.
Significant investments have been made in implementing these projects. For example, the company spent approximately $1 bn on the restoration of mining, separation, and construction of the Independence factory. In the summer of 2025, MP Materials entered into a large-scale public-private partnership agreement with the U.S. Department of War (known previously as Department of Defense) that includes, among other things, the Department of War’s commitment to purchase all magnets produced at the MP Materials’ 10X factory, a minimum price for neodymium-praseodymium oxide (NdPr) set at $110 per kg, and a direct investment of $400 mn in the company’s shares, which will allow the Department of War to become the largest shareholder of MP Materials with a share of up to 15 percent. The company also received a Commitment Letter from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs for $1 bn to finance the construction and development of the ‘10X’ magnet manufacturing facility. Furthermore, the project secured advantages from the Texas government, including incentives, grants, and tax exemptions. The total investment is estimated at $1.25 bn.
The new factory is expected to increase MP Materials’ total annual magnet production capacity to 10,000 tonnes (which explains its name - ‘10X’). According to MP Materials, the production process will utilize innovative technologies to minimize and even eliminate the use of heavy rare earth elements (HREEs), which are the Achilles’ heel of the American rare earth industry, as Mountain Pass ores contain virtually no rare earth metals. However, it’s unlikely to do without HREEs at the initial stage, so there are certain risks related to raw materials, as the new factory is scheduled to be operational in 2028, and the restrictions imposed by Pentagon on the purchase of magnets made using certain imported REEs will take effect on January 1, 2027.
There are several other rare earth producers in the USA, but none of them are yet integrated. Most of them rely on alternative raw material sources, including recycled ones.
Specifically, Energy Fuels produces NdPr oxide from monazite concentrates at the White Mesa Mill uranium concentrate factory in Utah. The plan is to increase the capacity of the NdPr oxide production factory in 2028 from 1,000 tonnes to 6,300 tonnes, and also start the production of heavy rare-earths (370 tonnes of dysprosium and terbium oxides). The concentrates from titanium-zirconium placer deposits in Australia, Madagascar, and Brazil, also owned by Energy Fuels, will be used as feedstock.
Phoenix Tailings produces neodymium and praseodymium metals, as well as dysprosium-iron alloy using the mine tailings at its factory in Exeter, New Hampshire; the capacity of the factory is 200 tonnes per year, with a potential to expand it to 1,000 tonnes.
ReElement Technologies produces recycled rare earth oxides and imported concentrates at its factory in Noblesville, Indiana, with a capacity of 200 tonnes per year. The company’s plans are to launch another factory in 2026 in Marion, with a capacity of 2,500-3,500 tonnes per year. In March 2026, Japan’s Mitsubishi Materials acquired an undisclosed stake in the company.
Noveon (at its factory in San Marcos, Texas, with a capacity of 2,000 tonnes of magnets and a potential to increase it to 10,000 tons) and REalloys (at its factory in Euclid, Ohio, currently operating in pilot mode) also produce recycled rare earth magnets and magnetic metals.
In late March 2026, the USA Rare Earth company announced the start of the commercial production of NdFeB magnets at its factory in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Production is expected to reach a capacity of 1,200 tonnes per year by the first quarter of 2027, and increase it to 5,000 tonnes later on. Currently, the factory uses imported raw materials, but the USA Rare Earth’s plans are to establish a full-cycle REE production in the future. Its key asset is the Round Top deposit in Texas, scheduled to be put into operation in 2028. The deposit’s ores are characterized by a high content of heavy rare earth elements, which is critical to the American rare earth industry. In January 2026, USA Rare Earth announced about receiving a $1.6 bn financial support from the Trump administration ($277 mn in federal funding and a $1.3 bn secured loan under the CHIPS Act, aimed at stimulating the manufacturing of semiconductors in the United States). The company also attracted $1.5 bn in private investments. The total cost of construction of the mine, magnet manufacturing factory, and related projects is estimated at $4.1 bn.
eVAC Magnetics (a subsidiary of Germany’s Vacuumschmelze) commissioned a rare earth magnet manufacturing factory in Sumter, South Carolina, in the fall of 2025, with an initial production capacity of 2,000 tonnes per year. Its capacity is expected to increase to 12,000 tonnes in future. Total investment in the construction of the factory exceeded $500 mn. eVAC Magnetics receives the materials for manufacturing the magnets from MP Materials. Furthermore, in October 2025, Vacuumschmelze signed an agreement with the British company Pensana to supply mixed rare-earth carbonate from the Longonjo mine that is under construction in Angola.
It’s important that Pensana previously had plans to build a separation factory in the Saltend Industrial Park (UK) with a capacity of 4,400 tonnes of NdPr oxide (with a potential to increase it to 12,500 tons), as well as a neodymium and praseodymium metal production factory in Yorkshire. In 2022, the UK government promised to support the project, but ultimately allocated only about $6.7 mn out of a required capital expenditure of $325 mn. As a consequence, Pensana decided to close the project and ship the raw materials received from Longonjo to the United States, where government support is much stronger.
In addition to existing facilities, several large-scale REE mining and recovery projects are underway in the United States.
Ucore Rare Metals’s plan is to complete the construction of the Strategic Metals Complex (SMC) separation factory in Louisiana in the second half of 2026 with a capacity of 2,000 tonnes of light and heavy REE oxides, with a potential to increase it to 5,000 tons. At the initial stage, the company is expected to import rare earth concentrates, but will eventually switch in the future to its own raw materials to be mined at the Bokan-Dotson Ridge deposit in Alaska that is currently under exploration.
The plan of Lynas USA, the American subsidiary of Australia’s Lynas Rare Earth, is to build a separation factory in Seadrift, Texas, with a capacity of 5,000 tonnes of rare earth oxides per year, using feedstock from Australia. The project was supported by the U.S. Department of War and scheduled for completion in 2025-2026, but the date for launching the construction was repeatedly postponed. In March 2026, Lynas announced the signing of an agreement with the U.S. Department of War. Under the agreement, the U.S. government will allocate approximately $96 mn to purchase light and heavy rare earth oxides from Lynas over four years, with a guaranteed minimum price of $110 per kg of NdPr oxide. However, uncertainty about the implementation of the Seadrift project remains.
European Union: Not the brightest prospects
The European Union and several other European countries are also moving towards reducing their dependence upon China, but at a slower pace. For European companies, the most pressing issue is a raw material shortage, as rare earth elements are not yet mined in Europe.
The only large-scale REE separation facility in Europe remains the Silmet factory in Sillamäe, Estonia, that is owned by Canada’s Neo Performance Materials (NPM) and operates using primarily Russian-origin raw materials. The factory’s capacity is about 3,000 tonnes of rare earth oxides. In 2025, NPM commissioned a factory for the manufacturing of NdFeB magnets, with the first stage having a capacity of 2,000 tonnes per year, and the capacity of the second stage is 5,000 tons; this factory is also located in Estonia. Capital expenditures for the construction of the factory’s first stage amounted to $75 mn, including about $21.7 mn from the EU Just Transition Fund. Under the existing contracts, NPM will supply magnets to Schaeffler, Bosch, and other companies.
It’s worth noting that small NdFeB magnet manufacturing facilities with a total annual capacity of about 2,000 tonnes operate in the European countries (Germany, Slovakia, Finland, and the UK).
In 2025, Belgium’s Solvay launched a rare-earth metal separation line at its La Rochelle factory in France. According to Solvay, the company’s plan is to produce only a few hundred tonnes of REE oxides at the initial sage, and by 2030, the target is approximately 4,500 tons, assuming the future development of the EU market. At the end of 2025, Solvay also reported a lack of support from the EU government and the company’s intention to launch a factory in the United States. To ensure the supplies of raw materials to its factory, Solvay has entered into several agreements, including with Canada’s Cyclic Materials that produces recycled mixed rare-earth metal oxides, and Australia’s Hastings Technology Metals that is preparing the Yangibana deposit in Australia for production.
It should be noted that agreements concluded during the phases of exploration or preparation for development cannot be considered a 100-percent solution to the raw material problem.
For example, Norway’s REEtec completed the construction of its separation factory with an annual capacity of 720 tonnes of NdPr oxide in Porsgrunn located within the Herøya Industrial Park in early 2025, but has not yet commenced commercial operations. The factory was built as part of a future rare earth metal production process chain that comprises the extraction of rare earth raw materials in Sweden. Here, in the industrial park in Luleå, a pilot plant is under construction by LKAB for the production of rare earth concentrate from apatite concentrate extracted from tailings at the Malmberget iron ore mine (also owned by LKAB).
Commissioning of the pilot plant is expected in the fall of 2026, with full-scale operation expected to be launched in 2030. LKAB notes that a potential full-scale commissioning requires getting permissions and taking specific investment decisions. In future, LKAB’ plans are to produce rare earth metal concentrate from the Per Geijer deposit located near Kiruna; its discovery was announced in 2023. The Per Geijer project is located close to the existing Kiruna iron ore mine, and its expansion requires the relocation of residential buildings in the town. In August 2025, LKAB had to relocate an early 20th-century wooden church 5 km away from its original location. According to LKAB’s estimates, it could take 10 to 15 years from obtaining an operating license to the commencement of mining at the Per Geijer project.
Earlier in 2021, REEtec entered into a raw material purchase agreement with Australia’s Vital Metals that used to develop the Nechalacho rare earth deposit in Canada. However, Vital Metals went bankrupt in 2023 and cancelled the deal with REEtec. Probably, REEtec hoped to find other supply sources for raw materials during the construction of the factory, but has so far been unsuccessful.
However, REEtec will have the opportunity to have another source of raw materials after 2030, in addition to the possible start of rare earth concentrate deliveries from the future Per Geyer mine. In March 2026, Norway’s company Rare Earths Norway (REN) announced a 81-percent increase in indicated and inferred resources at the Fensfeltet deposit in southern Norway, from 8.8 mn tonnes of rare-earth oxides to 15.9 mn tonnes (the Per Geyer deposit’s resources are estimated at 2.2 mn tonnes of rare-earth oxides). REN expects to start mining at the end of 2031 and produce 800 tonnes of NdPr oxide by 2032. Interestingly, REN has already signed two letters of intent for selling all associated thorium - with Denmark’s Copenhagen Atomics (for molten-salt thorium reactors) and with Norway’s Thor Medical (for radiopharmaceuticals). The issue of handling radioactive thorium was one of the key stumbling blocks to the Fensfeltet project.
Rare Earths Norway and REEtec jointly participate in the REEsilience project aimed at establishing sustainable production of rare earth metals and other products to be supplied from the Fensfeltet project. However, there is no information regarding any agreements signed between the companies for the supply of rare earth concentrates.
Several other large-scale projects to set up rare earth metal production facilities are underway in the European Union.
Specifically, the French company Carester’s plan is to commission the Caremag separation factory in Lacq, southern France, by the end of 2026; the factory is under construction by Carester and its Japanese partners. The factory is expected to operate using both recyclable materials (used magnets) and rare earth concentrates. Concentrates will be sourced from the Monte Alto deposit in the Rocha da Rocha ore field (Brazil), under an agreement with Brazilian Rare Earths, and from the Zandkopsdrift rare earth element and manganese deposit in South Africa, under an agreement with Frontier Rare Earths; both projects are under preparation for production. The Caremag factory has a design annual capacity of 800 tonnes of NdPr oxides and 590 tonnes of Dy and Tb oxides. The funding raised is estimated at €216 mn ($245 mn). Contracts have already been signed for the future factory’s output, so some volumes of Dy and Tb oxides will be supplied to Japanese partners, while NdPr, Dy, and Tb oxides will be supplied to the car manufacturer Stellantis Auto, as well as other European companies.
In March 2026, Canadian company Mkango Resources announced an update to the Definitive Feasibility Study for the project of developing the Songwe Hill rare earth deposit in Malawi and the Prefeasibility Study for the Puławy separation factory project in Poland due to revised assumptions regarding REE prices, operating costs, and capital expenditures. The company also stated its commitment to go forward and advance with these projects.
The initial capital expenditure for the implementation of the Songwe Hill project is estimated at $325.5 mn, including the construction of a mine, processing factory, hydrometallurgical factory, and other infrastructure facilities. The end product of the future project will be mixed rare earth carbonate containing 55 percent of rare earth oxides; the mine’s capacity is expected to be nearly 6,000 tonnes of rare earth oxides per year.
The plans are to supply the resulting mixed rare-earth carbonate to the Mkango factory (under engineering now) in Poland, with an annual capacity of 2,000 tonnes of NdPr oxide and 50 tonnes of dysprosium and terbium oxides. The company estimates the initial capital expenditure for its construction at $212 mn. Mkango signed an agreement for land concession with Grupa Azoty in February 2025 for the construction of the factory. The company has not specified a date to start the construction of the factory or a commissioning date, but it is expected to be around 2030.
Greenland divided in half
The Tanbreez deposit development project in Greenland, being developed by U.S. Critical Metals, should be of special attention. The deposit is among the world’s largest in terms of rare-earth reserves and is unique in its content of heavy rare-earth elements (approximately 27 percent); its ores also contain tantalum, niobium, zirconium, and hafnium. In January 2026, Critical Metals announced the approval for the construction of a pilot processing factory and storage facilities. The completion of the construction work is scheduled for May 2026, with the mine scheduled to commence production in 2027. It is expected to produce about 85,000 tonnes of rare-earth concentrate (approximately 2,000 tonnes of rare-earth oxides) at the initial phase with a potential increase of it up to 425,000 tonnes of concentrate. The plans are to develop the deposit using open-pit mining, with concentrating the ore in-situ using dry magnetic separation (without using any chemical reagents). The resulting eudialyte (rare earth) concentrate is expected to be supplied by sea to points of consumption. Thanks to deep fjords, port infrastructure will be accessible year-round.
In the second half of 2025 and early 2026, Critical Metals entered into a number of agreements for supplying 100 percent of the future mine’s output, including as follows:
• with the U.S. company Ucore Rare Metals (constructing a separation factory in Louisiana) for the supply of 10 percent of the total Tanbriz mine’s concentrate output;
• with the U.S. company REalloys (producing rare-earth magnets at its factory in Ohio) for the supply of 15 percent of Tanbriz’s output;
• with Romania’s FPCU (a subsidiary of the state-owned Nuclearelectrica) to set up a 50:50 joint venture to construct a separation factory near Brașov, Romania, and supply 50 percent of Tanbriz’s output. Critical Metals is a party to the joint venture on a carried interest basis (no shares, no debt, and no capital expenditures). Both parties have applied for participation in a €3.5 bn European financing package;
• with the Saudi conglomerate Tariq Abdel Hadi Abdullah Al-Qahtani & Brothers Company (TQB) to set up a joint venture (50:50; Critical Metals is also on a carried interest without capital expenditures) to build a separation factory in Saudi Arabia with an investment of $1.5 bn and supply 25 percent of Tanbriz’s output. REE oxides from the future factory will be supplied to the United States for military-industrial needs.
Thus, half of the rare earth concentrates from the future Tanbriz mine will go to the Western European market (via Romania), and the other half - to the American market (directly and via Saudi Arabia).
In summary, it should be noted that the West’s efforts to get rid of the dependence upon China in terms of REEs are quite impressive overall. Technologies for separating rare-earth metal oxides and manufacturing recycled rare-earth magnets are quite complicated; their development and scaling-up require high expertise and significant investment, and the implementation of any project in this area is a significant breakthrough. However, the comparing of the approaches used by the USA and the EU shows that Washington has a significantly higher chance of achieving technological sovereignty in terms of rare-earth metals. This has been made possible by its own rich mineral resource base, significant capital investment (billions of dollars), support given to rare-earth companies at various levels, direct interaction with the Department of War, and active cooperation with other countries (primarily Australia). The only remaining weakness is the risk of a shortage of heavy rare-earth metals.
Against this backdrop, the prospects for the European Union and other Western European countries look less bright. The only large-scale REE separation facility still operates primarily on Russian-origin raw materials, and the new factory remains idle, again due to a lack of feedstock. The lack of adequate government support forces the companies to relocate production to the United States (Pensana, Solvay). Half of the output of the Caremag factory that is under construction in France will be shipped to Japan, and construction of a factory in Pulawy, Poland, has not yet begun. Commissioning of rare earth deposits in Sweden and Norway is expected in the 2030s at best.
The Tanbriz project aimed at supplying both the USA and the EU with REEs, is not a ‘silver bullet’ either as its initial capacity will be small (maximum 2,000 tonnes of REE oxides in concentrate).
In any case, China is expected to remain the global leader in rare earth elements through 2030 and beyond, but its monopoly could be undermined, primarily due to the pro-active approach of the United States.
Anastasia Smolnikova for Rough&Polished
