According to the Kimberley Process, global diamond production in 2024 amounted to 107.9 mn carats, down 4% compared to the previous year and down 39% from the peak year of 2005. Meanwhile, the diamond industry’s mineral reserves are entering a challenging period as most of the primary deposits active today were discovered in the last century, easily accessible diamond reserves are nearing depletion, and mining operations are going deeper underground, becoming labor-and cost-intensive. There are virtually no new major diamond discoveries capable of replacing the depleted deposits, the only significant exception being the Luele project in Angola. On top of all of this, the diamond price decline from 2023 to 2026 exacerbated by competition from synthetic diamonds has revealed the vulnerability of even the largest diamond producers. Below is an overview of the state of the diamond industry’s mineral reserves and prospects for the leading diamond-producing countries.
Russia has the largest diamond reserves and resources in the world. According to the annual report for 2024 published by ALROSA, the country’s leading diamond mining company, diamond reserves at its deposits amounted to 1.0 bn carats as of early 2025, according to the classification of the State Commission on Mineral Reserves of the Russian Federation. ALROSA last conducted an audit of reserves and resources in accordance with the international JORC Code in 2018. At that time, the company’s mineral (measured, indicated, and inferred) diamond resources were estimated at 1.06 bn carats, including proved and probable reserves of 628 mn carats. This means that the company’s balance reserves are generally consistent with its mineral resources. Russia is also the world leader in diamond production, with 37.3 mn carats worth $3.3 bn in 2024, according to the Kimberley Process.
Technically, at the current production volume of approximately 30 mn carats (29.8 mn carats in 2025), the diamond reserves are expected to be sufficient for a third of a century, or until the late 2050s.
However, the country’s largest deposit, the Mir kimberlite pipe (containing about 19% of Russia’s diamond reserves), remains mothballed following the 2017 accident. ALROSA started engineering works in 2023 to restore the Mir underground mine as part of the Mir Deep project, and initially, the company’s plans were to resume diamond production in 2032, but in April 2026, the company announced that the main operations would not be started until 2027 or when “money becomes cheaper.” In June 2026, Aisen Nikolaev, the head of Yakutia, announced a slowdown in operations at the Mir mine due to a “crisis in the diamond market”. In early 2024, capital expenditures for the mine’s construction were estimated at $1.8 bn to $2 bn. The Mir pipe’s ore is characterized by a high average diamond grade (3.46 carats/t) and high quality, making this mine a key asset for the Russian diamond mining industry.
Currently, 30% of ALROSA’s diamonds are mined underground. Underground mines operate at the country’s key diamond deposits, including the Udachnaya, Internatsionalnaya, and Aikhal pipes. In 2025, the company started engineering work at the Jubilee underground mine located at the Jubilee kimberlite pipe; it is expected to start diamond production in 2032. At its peak, the Jubilee mine accounted for up to a quarter of the company’s diamond output.
That said, virtually all of ALROSA’s major primary deposits were discovered during the Soviet era; the most recent diamond discoveries include the Botuobinskaya and Nyurbinskaya pipes (1994–1996) and the Verkhne-Munskoye deposit (2007). The bulk of the reserve increase is due to additional exploration of the deep horizons of the pipes being developed, which also creates the foundation for more capital-intensive underground mining.
In addition to the transition to underground mining, ALROSA has faced a number of other challenges in recent years due to the sanctions regime. On January 1, 2024, the EU’s ban on direct imports of Russian-origin diamonds formalized by the 12th sanctions package came into effect, and ALROSA, along with its CEO, was added to the sanctions list. The restrictions were later extended to cover Russian-origin stones cut and polished in third countries, and since January 1, 2026, a mandatory diamond traceability system has been in effect for imports into the EU. Given the fact that the G7 and the EU countries account for about 70% of global diamond consumption, and Russia’s annual diamond revenues before the sanctions were estimated at approximately $4 bn, access to key markets and the company’s revenue have come under pressure, which, in turn, has limited investment opportunities for long-term projects like Mir.
Under the pressure of sanctions, ALROSA lost a key asset abroad - its 41-percent stake in Angola’s mining company Catoca (Sociedade Mineira de Catoca) - accounting for a significant share of Angola’s diamond production; the co-founder was state-owned Endiama (59%). As early as January 2024, the Angolan side demanded the withdrawal of the Russians from the project: the head of Endiama directly linked the negotiations to the sanctions imposed against Russia and ALROSA. In 2025, ALROSA completed its withdrawal from the project, and its stake was acquired for 15,9 bn rubles by Taadeen, a subsidiary of Oman’s sovereign wealth fund (Maaden International).
The company is also optimizing its production operations. In 2021, two mining and processing plants (MPPs), Nyurba and Mirny, were merged into a single mining and processing plant. In April 2026, ALROSA’s CEO Pavel Marinychev confirmed the company’s plans to merge the Udachny and Aikhal MPPs by 2027, with equipment and personnel optimization. In March 2025, the diamond production was suspended at the Verkhne-Munskoye deposit (Zapolyarny and Magnitny mines), as well as at the alluvial deposits of the subsidiary Almazy Anabara in the Anabar River valley. These deposits accounted for less than 1 mn carats, or about 3% of the company’s diamond production guidance for 2025. The start of diamond mining at the Mayskoye deposit has been postponed from 2025 to late 2027 or early 2028.
ALROSA’s current challenges are largely market-driven and will subside over time, and Russia has reserves sufficient for decades. In the long term, however, rising diamond production costs as mining continues moving underground, and the lack of new major discoveries mean that even the world’s largest mineral reserves will sooner or later result in a shortage of commercially viable diamonds.
Botswana is the world’s second-largest diamond producer (18.1 mn carats worth $1.36 bn in 2024), and its economy is critically dependent on a single resource. Rough diamonds account for about 80% of exports, a third of budget revenues, and a quarter of the country’s GDP, with almost all diamond production provided by Debswana, a 50/50 joint venture between De Beers and Botswana’s government. The measured, indicated, and inferred mineral resources - including proved and probable reserves - of Debswana’s deposits amounted to 750.5 mn carats at the end of 2025, according to Anglo American’s report for 2025. The bulk of the resources and all the reserves are concentrated in the Orapa (297 mn carats of diamond reserves with a 33-year life of mine) and Jwaneng (104.5 mn carats with a 14-year life of mine) kimberlite pipes.
In May 2024, Debswana started the construction of the Jwaneng underground project worth about $6 bn, to extend the life of the mine to 2054. Meanwhile, the company has to increase the capital expenditures amid its declining revenues, and it is seeking financing on international capital markets for the first time. Sluggish demand has already forced it to cut the diamond production from 24.7 mn carats in 2023 to 17.9 mn carats in 2024 and 15.1 mn carats in 2025.
The corporate environment is creating additional uncertainty. Anglo American is going out of the diamond business and has already written down the book value of De Beers to $2.3 bn, expecting to close the sale in 2026. Botswana owns 15% of the diamond company and has a preemptive right to buy additional shares. It is seeking a controlling stake and is looking for partners in the UAE and Oman. Angola’s Endiama also expresses interest in De Beers’ stake.
Botswana’s diamond reserves, similar to Russia’s, are expected to be mined until about the late 2050s, and the mineral base development in the short term depends on resolving the situation with the owner of De Beers, as well as on overall market conditions.
Angola, the world’s third-largest diamond producer by volume and second-largest by value, overtook Botswana in this indicator for the first time in 2024 ($1.41 bn). Since 2022, diamond production has increased by 1.6 times (up to 14.0 mn carats in 2024), reaching 15.2 mn carats in 2025, and the National Agency for Mineral Resources projects 16.2 mn carats in 2026.
As of the first half of 2024, Angola’s diamond reserves totaled 732 mn carats, including 81.2 mn carats at the Catoca pipe and 620.8 mn carats at the Luele (former Luaxe) project. Of these 732 mn carats, 709 mn carats are classified as proven reserves, but there is no direct evidence that these reserves were calculated in accordance with the JORC Code.
The Luelé kimberlite pipe discovered in 2013 by geologists from the Catoca Mining Society (Sociedade Mineira de CATOCA) in the Lunda Sul province is considered the largest discovery in the diamond industry in more than half a century. The mine was commissioned in November 2023 and has an estimated lifespan of 60 years. The project is controlled by the Catoca Mining Society (50.5%) and the state-owned Endiama (25%).
The diamond reserves for open-pit mining at the Catoca pipe that has been in development since 1997 is expected to be depleted within the next 10 to 12 years. Geological exploration is currently underway at the pipe’s deep horizons to assess the prospects for underground mining.
Angola’s long-term potential stems from the underexploration of the region: a significant portion of Angola’s diamond-rich areas were not explored using up-to-date exploration equipment, and global players are returning to the region, for example, Rio Tinto (Chiri project) and, most importantly, De Beers that set up an exploration joint venture with Endiama. In July 2025, the very first well drilled on the anomalies identified by airborne geophysics allowed to discover kimberlite - the first new kimberlite field discovered by De Beers in more than three decades. Meanwhile, Luanda aspires to be not only a diamond producer but also a co-owner of the diamond industry’s infrastructure, as it has submitted a bid for a stake in De Beers. Furthermore, Endiama itself is scheduled to hold an IPO in 2027.
In fact, Angola has become the most promising diamond-producing country, with its full potential not yet realized, largely due to the country’s long civil war (1975–2002).
Canada ranks fourth in the world in diamond production, with 13.3 mn carats worth $1.1 bn in 2024, but diamond production is expected to decline. Two of the country’s key diamond mines were shut down. Rio Tinto’s Diavik mine ceased operations in March 2026 due to depletion of its reserves - the mine produced over 150 mn carats in total. The Ekati mine that has produced approximately 100 mn carats since 1998, formally retains some remaining reserves, but its operator filed for bankruptcy in May 2026 as the high cost of mining in the Arctic could not cope with falling diamond prices. Only the Gahcho Kué mine, a joint venture between De Beers and Mountain Province Diamonds, remains in operation. Its diamond sales revenue has nearly halved in the past year, and its reserves will only support diamond production until the early 2030s.
Meanwhile, the country has made no significant discoveries in the past decade, and the project implementation is progressing extremely slowly. The indicated resources of the Star-Orion South deposit in Saskatchewan exceed 70 mn carats, but the property is owned by a junior company that lacks the funds to build a mine. The Chidliak project in Nunavut, with inferred resources of about 22 mn carats, is owned by De Beers, whose investment opportunities are constrained by the ongoing ownership change.
Thus, Canada risks following suit of Australia that has already ceased diamond mining, so the country has completely disappeared from the map of diamond producers after the closure of the depleted Argyle mine (2020) that accounted for over a third of the world’s rough diamond output in its heyday.
South Africa, the birthplace of industrial diamond mining, currently accounts for less than 5% of global diamond production estimated at 5.3 mn carats worth $662 mn in 2024. The country’s mineral base consists of three primary diamond deposits mined underground: the Venetia mine owned by De Beers, and the Finsch and Cullinan pipes, currently owned by Petra Diamonds.
The underground mine at the Venetia deposit, a cluster of kimberlite pipes, was launched in 2023. The project, costing over $2 bn, will extend the life of mine to the end of 2048 and is expected to produce about 60 mn carats (approximately 2.6 mn carats per year). Furthermore, the property has estimated inferred resources of 53.4 mn carats (as of late 2025), allowing for diamond mining to be extended beyond 2048.
As of June 2025, Petra Diamonds’ measured, indicated, and inferred diamond resources totaled 173.8 mn carats, including 23.3 mn carats of proved and probable reserves. The bulk of these resources (140.5 mn carats) are associated with the iconic Cullinan pipe with a potential end-of-life in 2050 (including the D-Cut project that requires additional feasibility study and approval). Original plans were to complete mining operations at the Finsch pipe in 2037, but these plans will likely be adjusted as the diamond mine was placed in business rescue mode - the South African equivalent of the external administration. According to the company, this is due to the “exceptionally weak diamond market.” Thus, South Africa also formally has diamond resources until 2050, but diamond production volumes are unlikely to significantly exceed 5 mn carats per year.
Namibia holds a special place in the diamond industry, as despite its relatively small diamond production volume (2.3 mn carats in 2024), it produces the most valuable rough diamonds (average price of $417 per carat), because the offshore placers of the Atlantic coast contain almost exclusively gem-quality stones. All mining operations are carried out by Namdeb Holdings, a 50/50 joint venture between the Namibia’s government and De Beers, uniting Namdeb (onshore mining) and Debmarine Namibia (offshore mining). Offshore diamond placers form the bulk of the country’s mineral base. The Atlantic 1 mine’s diamond resources exceed 73 mn carats; proved and probable reserves are estimated at 9.6 mn carats with a mine life of 26 years. In 2025, Debmarine Namibia reduced its diamond production by 12% to 1.4 mn carats (from 1.6 mn carats in 2024) and stopped using two of its seven mining vessels. Nevertheless, in terms of diamond quality, Namibia appears more resilient than most diamond producers.
It is difficult to assess the prospects for diamond mining in the DR Congo and Zimbabwe due to the lack of reliable data on diamond reserves and resources in these countries.
In the DRC, production is rapidly declining: while the country produced 33 mn carats of diamonds in 2005, the output dropped to 20.2 mn carats in 2010, 16 mn carats in 2015, 12.7 mn carats in 2020, and 9.8 mn carats in 2024. The price of these stones has always been among the lowest in the world, around $8 to $11 per carat. The state-owned company MIBA suspended its operations in mid-2024 and did not resume them until at least the end of 2025, despite repeatedly announcing the planned state support. In 2024, SACIM, a joint venture between the state and China’s AFECC, accounted for 98% of commercial diamond production, but in 2025, it accounted for only 13.5%; the remaining volume was produced by artisanal miners. The strengthening of the artisanal mining sector (traditionally a weak point of DRC’s diamond mining industry) along with the declining diamond production, indicates the degradation of the country’s diamond industry. Meanwhile, in June 2026, a small parcel (103.77 carats) of fully traceable diamonds mined by DRC’s artisanal miners was presented at a tender in Antwerp for the first time as part of the Belgian-Congolese OrigemA project that aims to provide cooperatives with direct access to the international diamond market and fair prices. For a sector that accounts for about 85% of the national diamond production, this is an important precedent.
Zimbabwe’s diamond mining boomed in the early 2010s, following the discovery of rich alluvial deposits in the Marange conglomerates in the east of the country in 2006. Since then, Zimbabwe has established itself as a major diamond producer, and at its peak in 2012, it produced 12 mn carats of diamonds, accounting for about 9% of global diamond output, although it has declined to 4 mn-5 mn carats per year (5.3 mn carats in 2024), as easily accessible surface diamond deposits have been depleted. Stones from the Marange region are small-sized, predominantly of industrial-grade, with a characteristic brownish hue; their average price is around $30 to $50 per carat.
Murowa, the country’s only operating kimberlite deposit, produced higher-quality diamonds, but operations were halted in 2026 due to the insolvency of its owner, RioZim.
As in the DRC, the prospects for Zimbabwe’s diamond mining remain uncertain because cheap rough diamonds are the first to become unprofitable when diamond prices fall, and the lack of a proved resource base precludes sustainable growth.
Overall, global diamond mining is heading toward a crossroads as the diamond deposits discovered in the 20th century are nearing depletion, or mining operations are going deeper underground, while new deposits are rarely being discovered. If exploration fails to yield diamond discoveries comparable to historical ones, the diamond industry will sooner or later face a significant decline in commercially viable diamond reserves.
Anastasia Smolnikova for Rough&Polished
