For much of the past 15 years, China was one of the great growth stories of the international diamond and jewelry industry. A rapidly expanding middle class, rising disposable incomes, increasing urbanization and a growing culture of diamond engagement and wedding jewelry transformed China from a relatively small diamond market into the industry's second-largest consumer market.
That transformation was remarkably fast. According to De Beers, mainland Chinese diamond-jewelry demand increased from approximately $840 million in 2000 to more than $10 billion in 2014. China's share of global diamond-jewelry demand rose from about 1.5% in 2000 to 13.4% in 2014 and peaked at approximately 14% the following year. By 2022, however, China's share had fallen to about 10%.
The subsequent decline has been much more than a temporary post-Covid correction. China's diamond market is being reshaped by slower economic growth, weak consumer confidence, demographic change, declining marriage rates, a strong preference for saving and investment, and a fundamental change in what younger consumers’ jewelry tastes.
For the international diamond industry, the issue is therefore not simply when Chinese demand will "recover." The more important question is what the Chinese diamond market will look like if, and when, it does.
The Decline in Diamond Sales
The scale of the change can be seen in the long-term figures. De Beers estimated mainland Chinese diamond-jewelry demand at approximately $10.1 billion in 2014. By 2019 it was essentially unchanged in dollar terms, at just under $10 billion, before falling to approximately $8.8 billion in 2022.
The deterioration continued after the pandemic. De Beers reported that China's economic difficulties and weak consumer demand persisted through 2024, with retailers reducing inventories of polished diamonds rather than placing substantial new orders.
There is now evidence of a partial stabilization. Chinese industry data put the 2025 diamond market at about $6.7 billion, although methodologies differ from the earlier De Beers figures and they should not be treated as directly comparable. The Chinese jewelry industry association reported that diamonds represented only about 5% of China's overall jewelry market in 2025, compared with approximately 78% for gold.
That comparison is revealing. China's jewelry market is not disappearing. Rather, the center of gravity is moving decisively toward gold and away from diamonds.
Problems Of Both Confidence and Income
China's economy remains large and continues to grow, but the composition of that growth matters enormously to discretionary luxury purchases.
In September 2026, Reuters reported that China's industrial production was expanding while retail sales were increasing only 0.4% year-on-year in August. At the same time, property investment fell 20%, illustrating the continuing weakness in one of the areas that has traditionally supported household wealth and confidence.
For diamond retailers, the important distinction is between having money and being willing to spend it.
Chinese households have traditionally demonstrated a much stronger desire to save than American households. The reasons are complex and include the social-security system, healthcare and education costs, housing, employment uncertainty, demographic pressures and limited confidence in future income and asset values. The OECD and European institutions similarly show considerably lower household saving rates in the US than in Europe, although precise international comparisons depend on definitions and methodology.
China's current problem is therefore not simply that consumers cannot afford jewelry. It is that many consumers are increasingly asking whether a discretionary purchase represents the best use of their money.
That is a difficult environment for a product such as a natural diamond, whose traditional selling proposition has been emotional, symbolic and aspirational rather than financial.
Demographic Changes Hitting the Traditional Wedding Market
Perhaps no structural change is more important than China's demographic transformation.
Marriage has historically been a major driver of diamond jewelry demand. But the number of potential newlyweds is shrinking. China recorded approximately 6.1 million marriage registrations in 2024, a decline of more than 20% from the previous year. Marriage registrations had already fallen for nine consecutive years between 2013 and 2022 before temporarily rebounding in 2023. Registrations continued to decline in the first quarter of 2025.
The implications for diamonds are substantial because the industry's traditional Chinese proposition was closely connected with engagement, marriage and the wedding ceremony.
The broader jewelry market is already showing this change. World Gold Council research found that wedding-related jewelry accounted for only 19% of Chinese jewelry retailers' sales in 2025, down from 24% in 2024, while self-wear increased from 27% to 37%.
The same transformation is occurring in diamonds. The future Chinese diamond consumer is increasingly likely to be buying a piece of jewelry for herself, for a birthday, anniversary or personal milestone, rather than exclusively for an engagement or wedding.
Major Retailers’ Results Reveal Changing Market
The results of China's leading jewelry groups provide a useful window into the transformation.
Chow Tai Fook remains one of the industry's largest players. In its financial year ended March 2025, group revenue fell 17.5% to $11.4 billion, with mainland China revenue declining 16.9% to $9.5 billion. Mainland same-store sales declined 19.4%. The group operated 6,501 points of sale in mainland China at March 2025.
There has subsequently been some improvement. Chow Tai Fook's FY2026 mainland revenue increased 1.9%, with the second half showing a 5.4% year-on-year increase.
For FY2026, Luk Fook's total revenue had increased 29% to HK$2.2 billion, while mainland revenue rose 40.8% to $ 950 million. Yet the strongest growth was not simply a return of the old diamond market: gold and fixed-price jewelry were major drivers. Mainland same-store sales rose 4.9%, while gold and platinum same-store sales increased 3.1% and fixed-price jewelry rose 15.9%.
Chow Sang Sang also illustrates the changing landscape. Its 2025 jewelry-and-watch retail revenue increased 5% to $2.7 billion, while mainland revenue rose only 2% to $1.7 billion.
The message from the major retailers is consistent: Chinese consumers have not stopped buying jewelry. They are changing what they buy.
The Diamond Itself Is Changing
The Chinese diamond market of the early 2010s was heavily associated with larger, higher-quality natural diamonds and aspirational bridal jewelry. That model has weakened.
Consumers are increasingly price-sensitive, while retailers have had to manage substantial inventories and falling natural-diamond prices. The result has been greater interest in smaller stones, more accessible price points and, increasingly, laboratory-grown, or synthetic, diamonds.
China is uniquely positioned in this area because it is not merely a consumer market for synthetics, it is the world's dominant production center.
GIA reported that China produced approximately three million carats of gem-quality synthetics in 2020, compared with about 1.5 million carats in India and approximately one million in the United States. Chinese production was dominated by HPHT technology, while Chinese companies were also expanding rapidly into CVD production.
Henan has become the center of this industry. Chinese provincial authorities have reported that China accounts for approximately 95% of global synthetics production, with Henan contributing roughly 80% of China's output, although these figures encompass industrial as well as gem applications and should therefore not be interpreted as jewelry-market share.
This enormous domestic manufacturing base gives China a structural advantage in synthetics: abundant production capacity, established technology and a sophisticated jewelry manufacturing and retail network.
Natural Versus Synthetic: Substitution Rather Than Simple Replacement
Synthetic diamonds have not simply replaced natural diamonds across China's market, since the evidence is more complex than that.
De Beers' 2023 research found that natural diamonds still ranked among the most desired luxury gifts among Chinese women, particularly among affluent consumers and millennials. At that time, fewer than 1% of women surveyed said they preferred synthetics.
That indicates a potentially important distinction between what consumers want when price is not the principal consideration and what they actually purchase when price becomes decisive.
Synthetics can offer significantly more carat weight for a given budget. As technology has improved and prices have fallen, they have become increasingly relevant to consumers who prioritize appearance, size and affordability over geological rarity.
For natural-diamond companies, the challenge is consequently moving toward a clearer separation of the two categories: natural diamonds as scarce, geological and potentially heirloom products, and laboratory-grown diamonds as technologically produced jewelry commodities.
Russian Diamonds Replacing Western Supply in China?
Western sanctions significantly changed the international diamond trade. The United States banned Russian-origin non-industrial diamonds in 2022 and subsequently introduced restrictions covering larger Russian diamonds even when substantially transformed in third countries. The EU and G7 similarly introduced phased restrictions, including a ban on Russian-origin diamonds of one carat or more from March 2024 and 0.5 carats or more from September 2024.
China, however, was not subject to those Western import prohibitions.
Trade data show that Russia remained a significant supplier to Hong Kong. In 2024, Hong Kong imported approximately US$789 million of non-industrial rough or low processed diamonds from Russia, representing 8.89 million carats.
But the mainland-China figures are dramatically smaller. Direct Chinese imports of Russian non-industrial rough or low processed diamonds in 2024 were reported at only about $3.9 million, or 28,299 carats.
Therefore, there is clear evidence that Russian diamonds continued to move into the broader China/Hong Kong trading sphere, but the available trade data do not establish that Russian stones became a major replacement for Western-origin diamonds in China's consumer jewelry market. Nor can Hong Kong's Russian imports automatically be equated with mainland Chinese consumption.
The more visible structural competitor to natural diamonds inside China is undoubtedly the country's own synthetics industry.
What Comes Next?
China remains too large and too important for the international diamond industry to abandon. But the old assumption that rising Chinese incomes automatically translate into rising diamond consumption is no longer valid, since the market is becoming more segmented.
At one end is a smaller but potentially resilient affluent market for high-quality natural diamonds, luxury jewelry and exceptional stones. At the other is a much larger value-conscious market in which synthetics, lighter jewelry and affordable designs can compete for consumer spending.
Between them sits gold, which currently enjoys a unique combination of cultural acceptance, investment appeal and jewelry functionality.
The most important change may therefore be psychological rather than economic. China's consumers have not lost their interest in jewelry; they have become much more selective about what jewelry means and what they expect it to deliver.
Conclusion: China Still Critical - But No Longer the China Of 2010
The Chinese diamond market has moved from a story of almost uninterrupted expansion to one of structural adjustment.
The extraordinary growth from 2000 to the middle of the 2010s created expectations that China would eventually become the industry's dominant consumer market. Instead, demographic contraction, declining marriage rates, economic uncertainty, high household saving, weaker property markets and changing consumer priorities have fundamentally altered the trajectory.
At the same time, the country's extraordinary position in synthetics manufacturing has created a uniquely Chinese competitive challenge for the natural-diamond industry.
There are signs of stabilization in 2025 and 2026, including stronger natural-diamond imports and improving results from some major jewelry retailers. But recovery should not be confused with a return to the old market. China's future diamond business is likely to be smaller, more segmented and less dependent on weddings, while personal consumption, affluent buyers, branded jewelry and the distinction between natural and synthetics become increasingly important.
For the international diamond industry, China therefore remains indispensable—but understanding the Chinese consumer of 2026 requires abandoning the assumptions that defined the Chinese diamond boom of the previous decade.
Philip Carter for Rough&Polished from London
