Arctic ice may begin to melt irrevocably in the summer and autumn periods by the middle of this century

Arctic ice may begin to completely melt in the summer and autumn periods by the middle of this century, which should be taken into account when predicting navigation along the Northern Sea Route, oceanologist Alexander Osadchiev, winner of the presidential Prize for Science for young scientists for 2022, told RIA Novosti.
According to him, the reduction of the ice area by 44% as a result of warming in the Arctic compared to the 1980s refers only to the summer minimum, and the indicators for winter have changed little. In winter the entire ice cover is restored almost to its original values.
"But the fact that all the ice in the Arctic can melt in the summer does not seem to be a completely unrealistic scenario. On the contrary, many models show this," the scientist said.
He recalled that the complete melting of ice in the Arctic in the summer-autumn period was predicted by the 2020-2030s.
"It is obvious that this has not happened now, and, say, in three years, in five years, this will not happen either. But in 20 years, maybe," the scientist noted.
These prospects should be taken into account when forecasting the development of navigation along the Northern Sea Route, Osadchiev explained.
A leading researcher at the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Physico-Mathematical Sciences Osadchiev won the prize for achievements in the study of oceanological processes in the seas of the Russian Arctic, which are important for ensuring economic activity in the waters of the Northern Sea Route.

Alex Shishlo for Rough&Polished