The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by the 2030s, and even active measures to reduce emissions will only delay the inevitable, according to a new study.
In 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the Arctic would not lose its summer ice if emissions were cut sharply. But the new research, published in the journal Nature Communications, projects the loss of summer sea ice in the 2050s in the low emissions scenario.
In CO2 emissions decline slowly or continue to rise, the first ice-free summer could be in the 2030s, a decade earlier than previous projections.
Faster melting of Arctic sea ice leads to a vicious circle of more heating, because the dark ocean exposed as ice melts absorbs more heat from the sun. The result is faster warming in the Arctic, and scientists have increasing evidence that this is leading to more extreme weather events in North America, Europe and Asia.
"Unfortunately it has become too late to save Arctic summer sea ice," said Professor Dirk Notz, of the University of Hamburg, Germany, who was part of the study team. "As scientists, we’ve been warning about the loss of Arctic summer sea ice for decades. This is now the first major component of the Earth system that we are going to lose because of global warming. People didn’t listen to our warnings."
