The implementation of oil and gas projects in the Arctic zone of Russia has been threatened due to a critical shortage of transportation. If all the plans announced by the authorities are taken into account, at least 200 ice-class vessels are needed to be put in operation before 2035, and they will most likely have to be built domestically, according to an assessment of the consulting company Yakov and Partners (formerly McKinsey Russia).
Experts pointed out that it will most likely not be possible to purchase ice-class tankers and gas carriers abroad. Firstly, there are simply no such vessels on the market. There are 748 gas carriers in the world, but only 24 of them are suitable for transportation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR). At the same time, 22 already belong to Russia, and the other two belong to companies from countries considered unfriendly by Russia (the USA and Norway).
The global tanker fleet comprises 2,319 vessels, but only nine of them are capable of operating in the Arctic Ocean. Two of them are operated by Russian companies, and seven more are operated by Greek companies. Last fall, after tightening of US sanctions took effect, carriers from Greece began to abandon contracts with Russia.
Secondly, it will be difficult to order tankers and gas carriers in sufficient quantities at foreign shipyards. Ice-class vessels can be built by companies from South Korea, Japan and China. However, Chinese and South Korean shipyards are already loaded with orders up to 2028-2029, and it will not be possible to find a place there for the construction of hundreds of ships.
Analysts also note that Korean shipyards may refuse Russian orders under the threat of sanctions. Thus, South Korea's Hanwha Ocean has already terminated the contract for the construction of three gas carriers for the Arctic LNG-2 project, and the three already built have not been transferred to Russian ownership.
The construction of ships on their own is complicated by the lack of spare capacity, the need for import substitution of ship equipment and materials, as well as the lack of necessary competencies from a large number of shipyards domestically.
According to the authors of the review, taking into account the experience of China and South Korea, the development of the shipbuilding industry will take 10-15 years, but it is also necessary to greatly increase the level of financing and government support.
Sergey Grishunin, Managing Director of the NRA rating service, believes that with the help of oil and LNG transshipment schemes, Russian suppliers will be able to manage a fleet of 50-70 ice-class vessels. However, even the construction of 5-6 tankers per year is a difficult task, taking into account the current workload of shipbuilding capacities, lenta.ru notes.
Alex Shishlo for Rough&Polished
