In an attempt to get a broader picture of the current diamond market before 2010 Rough&Polished turned to experts asking them to give their opinions about the latest developments in the industry.
Dilip Mehta, CEO of Rosy Blue NV:
What is your prognosis for the year 2010?
I think the industry is stabilizing and increasing volumes. We should look at 2007 as the base and we have to believe that some day we’ll go back to the 2007 level.
Whether it happens in two or three years, it will happen. As we dropped sharply we will recover sharply and that's why all this speculative type of business and the people’s perception of reality that we will bring back volumes and get there in 2010 or 2012 – but who knows?
It’s very difficult for us to think it is going to be in a year or two years. If the stimulus packages excite people, which is happening now, and this will bring them back to stability and activity - business activity, retail activity - I think we are out of trouble.
So now everything has to go by autopilot. Personally I think we’ll see a little dip once more and thereafter again recovering.
In 2012 I think we should be out of the crisis.
Are you satisfied with the behavior of ALROSA?
The answer is “yes”. Now I personally feel they need to monitor the market and release the right amount [of diamonds] so we don't have speculation and then we won't have an overflow. So it is balancing business, but personally I feel their management is very much connected to the industry and they need to be connected.
Pranay Narvekar, Vice President of Rosy Blue (India) Pvt. Ltd.:
How the industry will be feeling in 2010?
The industry is stabilizing. Because 2009 was a lousy year, we will see a jump in 2010 on a year annual bases. The situation will be stable. So I think we are well in the middle of the stabilization phase and we will be going forward with the more common industry.
How do you see the role of Russia in the current situation?
I think Russia has been a very sensible partner. ALROSA ensured they did not release their rough and we saw that because that could destabilize prices.
I guess going forward means to be sensible and ensure there is enough rough to avoid another bubble. So you need to maintain the balance.
Alex Shishlo, Editor of the Rough&Polished European Bureau in Brussels
