By Polina Yelisova
(rbc.ru) - Demand for lithium in Russia may be lower than expected amid a decline in electric vehicle (EV) production. The Ministry of Industry and Trade acknowledged the possibility of adjusting the strategy for developing the metallurgical industry, as well as revising the Polar Lithium’s production targets.
The projected demand for lithium in Russia may be lower than the target level of 10,000 tons by 2028; currently, metal consumption is at the level of 1,000 tons. During a round table “The Mining and Processing of Rare Earth Metals: Problems and Solutions” held in the Federation Council on February 12, the Ministry of Industry and Trade acknowledged the possibility of revising the targets amid an anticipated decline in the EV production.
“We thought that the forecast demand for lithium would be over 10 thousand tons, now we estimate the demand for lithium at about 1,000 tons. The flagship project being implemented by Norilsk Nickel and Rosatom for the production of cathode active materials (CAMs) using lithium may be adjusted - the demand will be several times lower from 2028, based on the plans of the collaborating companies - colleagues - to reduce the production of cathode active materials amid the expectations of an anticipated decline in the production of electric vehicles. We will focus on revising and updating the strategy,” said Konstantin Fyodorov, Deputy Head of the Department of Metallurgy and Materials of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, at the discussions held in the Federation Council.
The Ministry confirmed to RBC that the current forecast is 10 thousand tons of lithium, however, after a survey of the industry players and key investors, the Ministry of Industry and Trade received more up-to-date data, which was influenced by economic realities and the operating activities of the companies. “After checking the updated data, we will make adjustments to the Strategy [for the Development of the Metallurgical Complex until 2030],” the press office reported, adding that this is a “real-life document” with the possibility of making adjustments to it. The Ministry of Industry and Trade also expects that the measures to stimulate demand for lithium through regulatory support instruments will increase the demand for the metal. “We proceed from the basic principle stipulating a guaranteed meeting the industries’ demands for new materials, including the demand for lithium,” the ministry added.
Experts agree that in the event of a lithium surplus in Russia, the metal can find its way to international markets. Sales of Russia’s lithium to the global market will remain important for mining companies also taking into account the fact that a balance between supply and demand in the world market is expected to be achieved by 2027-2028, according to analysts’ forecasts, and the price for lithium may increase in the medium term.
