The greenhouse effect plays a very important role for the inhabitants of our planet. It forms a comfortable thermal balance of the atmosphere and the earth's surface for human life, and also protects the Earth from sharp temperature fluctuations in the daily and annual cycle.
Without greenhouse gases, life on planet Earth would be impossible. Some scientists have associated the emergence of ice ages in past eras with a sharp decrease in the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
At present, against the background of a sharp increase in the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, there is a fairly intense heating of the earth's surface, exceeding the rate of temperature growth in the historical past, which also leads to a restructuring of global and regional atmospheric processes.
According to the final report of the international group of experts on climate change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2022), the average temperature increase on our planet compared to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) is currently about 1.1 °C, and the average global temperature has reached 14.8 °C. Moreover, in the period from 2010 to 2020 alone, its increase was 0.25 °C.
Rapid change in climatic conditions can obviously have a strong impact on human living conditions, the growth and development of plants and animals on land and in the ocean, agricultural and industrial production.
"The highest rates of temperature increase are observed over the land surface in temperate and polar latitudes. Along with the increase in temperature, a change in the amount of precipitation is also observed, as well as an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. It is obvious that they have an extremely adverse effect on the living conditions of the population, and can also lead to significant economic damage in various industries, as well as in agriculture," professor at the Department of Meteorology and Climatology of the Geography Faculty of Moscow State University Alexander Olchev told Rough&Polished.
According to him, the identified patterns of observed climate changes and the analysis of cause-and-effect relationships allows scientists to confidently assume that reducing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and curbing the rate of their growth in the atmosphere is one of the most important global tasks of the modern society.
Most climate change experts associate the sharp climate changes observed in recent decades with a sharp increase in the concentration of greenhouse (climate-active) gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, freons, etc.) in the atmosphere, primarily due to the rapid growth of their emissions from anthropogenic sources.
Thus, according to paleoclimatic research, the current level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has reached its maximum values over the past 2 million years, amounting to 423.64 ppm (parts per million, corresponding to the amount of cubic centimeters of carbon dioxide in a cubic meter of dry air) in November 2024. Predictive estimates of possible future climate changes show that under almost all possible climate change scenarios, depending on socio-economic changes (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), the current rate of global warming will be maintained throughout the 21st century.
At the same time, in Russia, as well as in other countries and regions located in temperate and polar latitudes, the highest rates of temperature increase will be observed compared to the predicted average values of temperature changes throughout the globe.
Olchev pointed out that, as temperatures in the southern regions of Russia are rising, a decrease in precipitation and increased aridity are projected in some areas. This could have extremely negative consequences for the economy and the lives of the population.
According to the scientist, curbing the growth rate of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere can be achieved, first of all, through the development of low-carbon energy production technologies, as well as technologies that ensure a partial or complete reduction in future energy output generated by hydrocarbons in key areas of the economy, such as energy, metallurgy, mechanical engineering and transport. This path involves huge financial costs, which the world community, nevertheless, will be forced to take in order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050-2060, Olchev is convinced. Even under the most rigorous scenario of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, by 2100, modern natural ecosystems of land and ocean will not be able to fully compensate for the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources. The key to forecasting the socio-economic development of the country in a changing climate is taking into account the role of natural ecosystems in the formation of the balance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
At the same time, as Olchev pointed out, it is necessary to take into account that in addition to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, which are the main driver of the global warming, the climate is also influenced by a whole range of natural and anthropogenic factors that determine the radiation, heat and water exchange of the earth's surface with the atmosphere.
The number of permanent stations for monitoring greenhouse gas flows in Russia, until recently, amounted to no more than 20.
Taking this into account, one of the main objectives of the Federal Scientific and Technical Program in the Field of Environmental Development of the Russian Federation and Climate Change for 2021-2030 is to create a national system for monitoring the flows of greenhouse (climate-active) gases and substances to ensure that reliable and representative information on the potential of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems to absorb greenhouse gases is obtained at the national level.
Taking this into account, in 2021, the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation began implementing a pilot project to create a network of research and educational sites for the development, testing and validation of technologies for the quantitative assessment of the potential for greenhouse gas emissions and absorption by various types of natural ecosystems.
The pilot project has set a strategic goal to assess the potential of Russian natural ecosystems to absorb climatically active gases. In particular, it monitors the emission and absorption of greenhouse gases using ground-based and remote sensing methods; assesses the spatial and temporal variability of greenhouse gas flows; develops and tests technological solutions for monitoring the emission and absorption of greenhouse gases by natural ecosystems, aimed at reducing their emissions and increasing their absorption from the atmosphere. As Olchev reported, carbon polygons for monitoring greenhouse gas flows will be established in the most representative natural terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, allowing to assess the scale of spatial and temporal variability of greenhouse gas emissions and absorption on the territory of the Russian Federation, taking into account the existing diversity and variability of climatic conditions, land use structure, vegetation and soil cover, and terrain. Currently, there are 19 successfully operating carbon polygons in Russia, located in the Volgograd, Kaliningrad, Kaluga, Kirov, Novosibirsk, Moscow, Rostov, Tyumen, Sverdlovsk, Sakhalin and Samara regions, Krasnodar Krai, the Chechen Republic, the Republic of Tatarstan, the Republic of Bashkortostan, the Yamalo-Nenets and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrugs (Districts). The polygons are operated by leading universities and research institutes of the Russian Federation. Describing the role of carbon polygons in the implementation of the country's low-carbon development strategy, the Moscow State University professor noted that the use of modern research methods and technologies will allow the scientists to obtain reliable and representative data on the emission and absorption of greenhouse gases by terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, develop new technologies for the rational use and conservation of natural resources, reduce the negative impact of the growth of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the climate, and get closer to achieving the strategic state goal of achieving carbon neutrality by the Russian Federation by 2060.
"Looking back at the past three years of the pilot project, we can say with confidence that it is not just developing successfully, but has become one of the defining venues in the field of climate research in Russia," Olchev said.
The project, which began in 2022, continues to assess the emission and absorption potential of greenhouse gases by various types of natural ecosystems. It is being implemented in cooperation with an innovative project of national importance to create a "Unified National System for Monitoring Climate-Active Substances", build a multi-level system for monitoring climate-active substances, including both direct and satellite observations over land, oceans and seas, and then to model and integrate the observation data.
"The carbon polygon project is undoubtedly the most important component of the national system of the Russian Federation, providing high-precision observations of the flows of climate-active gases and characteristics of the carbon cycle at representative intensive monitoring sites. Without the research carried out within the framework of the project, it is impossible to obtain reliable regional and national estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and absorption by terrestrial and marine ecosystems of the Russian Federation," the Moscow State University professor emphasized.
Alex Shishlo, Editor in Chief of the European Bureau Rough&PolishedProduced and published as part of the project "Best practices have a voice
