This holiday season, U.S. retail sales excluding automotive are expected to increase 7.1% year over year, according to the Mastercard SpendingPulse annual holiday forecast.
This includes anticipated jewelry sales growth this year by 2.2% over 2021 in the traditional holiday shopping season lasting from November 1 to December 24. As compared with 2019, jewelry sales are expected to go up 33.4%.
Apparel (+4.6% YOY/ +25.3% YO3Y) and Luxury (+4.4% YOY/ +29.6% YO3Y, excluding jewelry) are expected to be hot holiday gift sectors, sending consumers into the new year in style.
The 2021 holiday season was resurgent for retailers (up +8.5%) as pandemic-induced pent-up demand, excess savings and supply chain issues sent shoppers stocking their carts to secure gifts. This year, the holidays are expected to shape up to be yet another positive retail season.
With holiday shopping slated to begin early again this year, some of the season’s retail growth is expected to be pulled forward in October as consumers hunt for early deals. Key promotional days like Black Friday weekend are also expected to make a strong return along with Christmas Eve, which falls on a Saturday, slated to be among the biggest days for retailers and last-minute shoppers.
E-commerce is anticipated to increase despite significant growth last year, up +4.2% YOY/ +69.2% YO3Y, as the channel remains a convenient way for consumers to check prices in real time.
In-store retail sales are expected to be up +7.9% YOY/ +10.4% YO3Y.
The holiday season builds on the momentum seen this summer, with U.S. retail sales excluding automotive in August up +11.7% year over year and +20.4% compared to 2019. Online sales in August grew +8.9% and +100.2% respectively, compared to the same periods. Experiential sectors in particular - including Restaurants, Airlines and Lodging - saw strong double-digit growth.
Alex Shishlo for Rough&Polished
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