In 2022, platinum automotive demand rose 12 per cent to 2,957 koz, and this year’s forecast anticipates growth of ten per cent, taking it to 3,246 koz, 13 per cent higher than automotive demand for platinum in 2019.
In contrast, global vehicle production reached 82 million units in 2022, some eight per cent below the 89 million units manufactured in 2019. This year, global vehicle production is also expected to remain below 2019 levels, reaching 86 million units.
The key driver behind the growth in platinum-for-palladium substitution is expected to rise by 50 per cent to 540,000 oz this year from 360,000 oz in 2022.
Platinum and palladium both have the necessary physical and chemical properties that make them well-suited to autocatalysis.
Substitution is a far bigger driver of automotive demand for platinum than vehicle production volumes. However, this is changing as demand, supply and the associated cost of purchasing these respective platinum group metals have impacted usage.
In recent years, platinum-for-palladium substitution has gained traction due to a market as well as price - the imbalance between platinum and palladium, incentivising automakers to switch to the equally effective, yet less expensive, platinum.
So, even under a scenario in which platinum and palladium prices moved to parity, the additional platinum demand generated would be sustained over the life of all existing vehicle platforms using platinum.
Aruna Gaitonde, Editor in Chief of the Asian Bureau, Rough&Polished
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