The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) has published its quarterly data and forecast for the third quarter of 2023, with revised estimates for the platinum market in 2023 as well as a first forecast for 2024.
WPIC estimates platinum deficit to reach 1,071 koz this year before subsiding to 353 koz in 2024. This year, it expects an exceptionally strong year-on-year demand growth of 26% (+1,690 koz) to 8,150 koz that far exceeds weaker supply, which is expected to drop 3% year-on-year to 7,079 koz.
Global mine supply for full-year 2023 is expected to be essentially flat year-on-year at 5,608 koz with downside risks remaining, such as a worsening of the electricity shortage in South Africa. These risks may be partially counteracted by investment in processing infrastructure, as well as asset optimization.
According to WPIC, in 2024, global platinum mine supply is forecast to grow by 3% (+191 koz) year-on-year to 5,743 koz, with a 5% improvement in South African output.
In 2023, automotive platinum demand is expected to jump by 14% to a six-year high of 3,262 koz due to stricter emissions regulations and platinum-for-palladium substitution in autocatalysts that will reach around 620 koz this year, against 385 koz in 2022.
Industrial demand for 2023 is predicted to surge by 14% year-on-year (+317 koz) reaching 2,652 koz, marking it the strongest year on record. Glass industry and chemical sector are cited as main drivers of demand. While industrial demand is forecast to fall 11% in 2024, it will nevertheless be the third-highest level on record at 2,367 koz.
“Following this year’s forecast record deficit, in excess of 1 Moz, the platinum market is now facing consecutive deficits. This demonstrates, somewhat counterintuitively, the resilience of the platinum market despite economic headwinds, a feature that is strongly linked to its diversity of demand," said WPIC CEO Trevor Raymond.
Theodor Lisovoy, Editor in Chief of the European bureau, Rough&Polished
