The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) has published its quarterly platinum market report for Q2 and updated its forecast for 2024, expecting the deficit to widen significantly.
It expects that in 2024, the platinum market deficit will amount to 1.028 million ounces which is 365,000 ounces higher than in the previous forecast. This adjustment is partially due to the inclusion of Chinese demand for platinum bars weighing more than 500g in the newest report.
WPIC forecasts total mine supply to decline by 2% year-on-year to 5.508 million ounces in 2024, its lowest level since 2013, due to lower refined production across South Africa, Zimbabwe, Russia and North America. Total market supply including recycling is forecast to decrease 1% to 7.089 million ounces. The total platinum demand for 2024 is expected to rise 3% to 8.118 million ounces, which is 4% higher than average over the past ten years.
Meanwhile, in the second quarter of 2024, the platinum market recorded a deficit of 464,000 ounces. Mine supply increased by 5% year-on-year to 1.570 million ounces and recycling rose by 1% to 388,000 ounces for a total market supply of 1.958 million ounces, up 4% over last year and up 22% compared to the prior quarter. Quarterly demand was up 13% year-on-year to 2.421 million ounces and reached a four-year high.
“2024 will be the second consecutive year where the platinum market will experience a significant deficit, driven by robust demand and ongoing supply vulnerabilities. However, even with deficits of this magnitude, the platinum price appears unresponsive,” says WPIC CEO Trevor Raymond.
“Arguably, one of the key factors driving sentiment has been expectations of a continued and inevitable decline in automotive demand for platinum… in combination with expectations of a rapid electrification of the global drivetrain.”
Theodor Lisovoy, Managing Editor, Rough&Polished
