In the latest World Silver Survey prepared by the Silver Institute and Metals Focus, the global silver market deficit is forecast to widen for the sixth consecutive year to 46.3 million ounces.
This is an increase from a 40.3 million ounce deficit of 2025, which manifested itself despite a 7% increase in supply and a 2% contraction in overall demand.
"The drawdown of above-ground stocks over the past five years leaves the silver market vulnerable to elevated bursts of reduced liquidity, volatile prices, premiums and lease rates," Silver Institute analysts said.
At the same time, several reports from the think-tank confirmed strong coin and bar demand across most key markets in 2026, as "product shortages were common, premiums jumped and queues outside dealers were commonplace."
The Silver Institute expects global silver mine production to decline slightly in 2026, despite higher Mexican and Moroccan output. Recycling, meanwhile, should reach its highest level since 2012.
On the demand side, analysts see a softening in some segments such as jewellery manufacturing, where it is expected to decline 16% due to higher prices. Industrial fabrication is forecast to fall by 3% for a second consecutive year on lower photovoltaic consumption, compensated by higher AI, automotive, and power-grid demand.
Coin and net bar demand is forecast to rise 18% to the highest level since 2022, the Silver Institute said.
"Beyond 2026, the dynamics of the silver market will be influenced by the interplay between its dual status, as that of a precious metal, and as an important industrial raw material," analysts concluded.
Theodor Lisovoy, Managing Editor, Rough&Polished
