The Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group (ICSG), an autonomous intergovernmental think tank, has published its 2026 - 2027 global refined copper market report and forecast a widening surplus.
The organisation believes that the market surplus next year will increase from 104 000 tonnes in 2026 to 368 000 tonnes in 2027, as production is forecast to rise by about 0.4% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. The increase is attributed to the ramp-up of smelters and refineries in Indonesia, India and the European Union.
Meanwhile, global refined copper consumption is expected to increase by about 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, with Asia being the main driver of global growth, while demand in other key copper-using regions, such as the EU and Japan, will remain subdued.
"In general, however, global usage is expected to continue to be supported by improvements in manufacturing activity in some of the key copper end-use sectors, continued demand from the energy transition, urbanisation, digitalisation (data centres/AI) and the development of new semis production capacity in a number of countries," ICSG noted.
World copper mine production is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, supported by the ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia), Batu Hijau (Indonesia) and Malmyz (Russia) mines; the expansion at Julong (China) and Svaytogor (Russia) mines; higher output at Antamina (Peru); the processing of stockpiled ore at Cobre (Panama); and an expected recovery from the previous year’s constrained output at other mines.
Global mined output growth will be partially offset by a decline in concentrate production in Indonesia and the DRC, and a decline in Chilean production.
Theodor Lisovoy, Managing Editor, Rough&Polished
