MMC Norilsk Nickel, the largest producer of palladium and high-grade nickel and a major producer of platinum and copper, developed three scenarios for the global economy and climate change through 2050 and presented them during the 27th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Egypt. The Company will use these scenarios for strategic planning, to assess risks and identify opportunities emerging from the global energy transition, and to adopt to climate change.
The social and economic scenarios comply with the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) recommendations and were developed with the assistance of experts from the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Global temperature changes projected under these scenarios are in line with the three scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (SSP 126, SSP 245, SSP 585), which were adopted by the Company to assess climate change-related physical risks in the regions of operations.
These scenarios were approved by the Risk Management Committee of the Management Board and the Sustainable Development and Climate Change Committee of the Board of Directors.
The Company also drafted and piloted a methodology for calculating the internal carbon price, which will be integrated into the investment and operational decision-making process.
Vladimir Zhukov, Nornickel Vice President, Investor Relations and Sustainable Development commented: “The climate change agenda remains highly relevant to us. We are now building a system of climate risk assessment in accordance with global best practices, such as TCFD. Using the long-term climate and social and economic scenarios for the global economy is key to adapting to the physical risks of climate change, as well as risks associated with the global energy transition. At the same time, we believe that the latter also presents for us an opportunity, as the global demand for Nornickel’s green metals is expected to grow, while our nickel products enjoy the lowest carbon footprint in the industry.”
The Company drafted three long-term social and economic scenarios for the global economy and respective climate change scenarios, which were labelled as “Rapid Transformation”, “Sustainable Palladium” and “Global Growth”.
The first scenario assumes that the Paris Agreement goals will be achieved; the second one implies that current social, economic and technological trends will sustain; and the third scenario (“Global Growth”) is based on the assumption that efforts to curb climate change will not be effectively pursued, with further economic growth to be supported by hydrocarbons, mainly in developing economies.
Sustainable Palladium scenario, which was selected as a base case, implies that traditional industries will continue playing an important role alongside with the expanding green economy. In particular, ICE vehicles are expected to retain a large market share, supporting a steady demand for palladium in the long run. The Company will use the other two scenarios for stress tests of the physical risks associated with climate change.
The development of these scenarios is one of the projects within the TCFD compliance roadmap, adopted as part of the Company’s environmental and climate change strategy.
MMC Norilsk Nickel is a diversified mining and metallurgical company, the world’s largest producer of palladium and high-grade nickel, and a major producer of platinum, cobalt, copper and rhodium. The company also produces silver, gold, iridium, ruthenium, selenium, tellurium, sulphur, and other products.
The production units of Norilsk Nickel Group are located in the Norilsk Industrial District, Kola Peninsula, and the Trans-Baikal Territory, as well as in Finland.
MMC Norilsk Nickel shares are listed on the Moscow and St Petersburg stock exchanges, with its ADRs also traded on the latter.
Vladimir Malakhov, Rough&Polished
