A Trip Through the Diamond Industry in March 2017

(paulzimnisky.com) - As the diamond industry marks its foray into 2017, Q1 demand for rough has been stronger relative to Q4 2016 and also relative to a year ago. Christmas season 2016, albeit mediocre, and a strong 2017 Chinese New year has driven seasonal restocking demand, and most, but not all, Indian cutters have begun to show signs of recovery after the initial shock of the demonetization last year. Last year, most miners liquidated excess rough inventories which they accumulated in 2015, and have since ramped-up production into 2017, resuming more normal pre-indigestion output levels of three years ago. Demand growth this year is likely to come from a post-election U.S. market where employment is stable and the stock market is at an all-time-high, driving positive sentiment that should translate into discretionary spending. The U.S. is the largest diamond jewelry market in the world representing 45% of global demand. China, the world’s second largest jewelry market, at 16% of global demand, should be driven by continued government stimulus and an ever-expanding middle-class consumer. India, representing 8% of the market, should show improvement year-over-year as domestic demand for jewelry returns as the demonetization impact is digested, especially in the second half of the year.