Are diamonds really forever? With limited publicly available data, it can be difficult for analysts and executives to get a robust sense of the outlook for the diamond industry. And with major changes taking place across all parts of the value chain, from mining operations to consumer buying patterns, it can be hard to assess what the future might hold.
McKinsey believes that the diamond industry will remain attractive to investors, but we also know that companies across the value chain are looking for insights to help guide their long-term strategy development. We have, therefore, analysed a series of potential scenarios for the industry over the next ten years, looking at a range of variables and their potential impacts on different parts of the value chain. Our scenario-based assessment offers an independent perspective on the drivers of industry performance, based on proprietary research and insights from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), the business and economics research arm of McKinsey.
Our analysis suggests that even under the most pessimistic demand scenario and the most aggressive supply scenario, the fundamentals of the industry will likely be positive, with demand outpacing supply growth. At the same time, the industry is set for rapid change under any scenario as a result of various trends, such as the expected accelerated or further increase in mining costs, the pressure on the midstream to professionalise and the continued shift in demand to emerging markets. Companies will need to position themselves carefully to take advantage of growth opportunities.
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