The retail sector in the United States is going through a crucial time which is the sales period before Christmas and the coming New Year. For the overwhelming part of Americans, these are the most important holidays of the year. In the last two months before the end of the year retailers may earn from 25% to 40% of their annual revenue from sales, but in the last week before Christmas the number may go up to 20% of total holiday sales. This is why it was not surprising that many retailers were under a great strain before Christmas shopping and feared that the season would be disappointing. How much true were their fears?
According to Associated Press, a warning bell for the retail trade came with the results of a survey undertaken by consulting firm Deloitte as far back as September. They were to prove that Americans were so much worried about another crisis wave that intended to cut their Christmas sales by 5% this year.
In early December, Reuters wrote that according to its probe, approximately 32 percent of people surveyed said they had finished the majort part of their Christmas shopping in November, the month that includes Black Friday.
However, buyers proved they still “had a shot in the locker” and with renewed vigor started to purchase in the last days before the coming holidays. As Rob Bates of JCK Online pointed out, there is an interesting disconnect between how consumers feel about the economy and how they are actually acting. He says that Americans remain nervous about what’s happening and yet, they have been continuing to show moderate increases in spending all year. Most think, barring some catastrophe, that should continue through the holidays, Rob Bates says.
U.S. chain-store sales for the week from December 12 to 18 rose 4.6 percent year on year, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs, Rapaport reports. ICSC expects that comparable-store sales will increase 3.5 percent to 4 percent for the month of December.
Recently, the National Retail Federation said it would upgrade its forecast for the holiday sales to 4% from the initial 3%. In terms of money sales are expected to reach $469.1 billion.
However, the organization notes that the ongoing debt crisis in Europe and political wrangling in Washington could impact consumer spending this holiday season and into 2012. According to JCK Online, the forecast also cautions that lingering unemployment will keep holiday retail sales from hitting pre-recessionary levels, despite the decline in aggregate household debt.
So far the forecast offered by IDEX Online may be viewed as the most optimistic for jewellers since it says that U.S. holiday jewelry sales are expected to rise 7 percent to 10 percent, based year-over-year. However, this forecast is mostly built upon a significant rise in prices for polished diamonds and precious metals.
Consumers will spend $4.7 billion on jewelry this holiday season - a 7 percent increase from last year - according to a forecast from industry research firm IBISWorld. “The luxury market has led the economy in recovery, showing signs of growth throughout 2011,” said IBISWorld senior analyst Nikoleta Panteva in a statement.
Wrapping up the review on a festive note, it would be appropriate to mention the fresh data from the end of December received from comScore Inc. monitoring online sales. The company reported holiday season retail e-commerce spending for the first 48 days of November – December 2011 and said that for the holiday season-to-date, nearly $32 billion has been spent online, marking a 15-percent increase versus the corresponding days last year. On the week ending December 18, sales were over $6 billion, an all-time record in online retail spending. The final shopping weekend before Christmas (December 17-18) reached $1.04 billion. Sales data from retail stores will be announced later, but tentatively we may say that the Christmas shopping season 2011 has a high chance to be called a success.
Olga Patseva, Editor in Chief of the American Bureau, Rough&Polished
