Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe (88) whose health was recently again a subject of much speculation arrived home from Asia on Thursday morning looking “fit as a fiddle”.
Mugabe had left Harare on March 31 for an Easter break as well as to “supervise” post graduate studies for his daughter Bona, 22, in Hong Kong, his aides said.
However, this did not convince many given that Mugabe had made 10 trips to Singapore in the past 16 months, reportedly for medical treatment.
WikiLeaks released last year a 2008 US diplomatic cable saying Central Bank Chief Gideon Gono had told then-US ambassador James McGee that Mugabe had prostate cancer and had been advised by doctors he had less than five years to live.
Pendulum tilts elsewhere
The speculation on his health was also fuelled by a popular Nigerian preacher, TB Joshua who prophesied the imminent death of an elderly, autocratic Africa ruler.
Those that believed this prophecy thought the pendulum would easily tilt towards the Zimbabwean leader, given his alleged sickness, advanced age and the tag of a “dictator” that he carries.
However Malawi's 78-year-old president Bingu wa Mutharika died on April 5 instead from a cardiac arrest.
Mugabe landed in a white Airbus 319 private jet chartered by a diamond mining company believed to be Mbada Diamonds, a partnership between state-owned Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation (ZMDC) and Grandwell Holdings owned by some South Africans.
Radio VOP had earlier quoted sources as saying Mugabe “leased” a private aircraft owned by Mbada Diamonds to ferry him from Harare International Airport to South Africa where he then boarded Singapore Airlines enroute to the Asian country.
This was the second time that Mugabe had utilised the services of Mbada’s jet in less five months, the report claimed.
Given this generosity from a diamond company operating in Marange, there was no doubt that a lot was happening in the diamond fields than what meets the eye.
Why would a diamond company charter an Airbus for Mugabe if they do not want to protect their interests in the country, where most businesses survive on patronage?
No wonder why there had been several reports alleging that Mugabe’s party was diverting diamond revenue from Marange to finance their political operations.
This kind of “generosity” helps legitimise such speculation.
It was also interesting to note that players in the industry were equally caught up in the frenzy of the Zimbabwean leader’s alleged last gasp.
Control over Marange diamonds
The question asked was whether Mugabe’s departure would bring any change in the manner Marange diamonds were currently being mined and sold.
A Zimbabwean diamond monitor Farai Magawu told Rough & Polished that in the event of Mugabe’s departure, much of the drama would play out on the country’s political scene.
He, however, said whoever controls the diamond fields in the ensuing struggle for power and dominance would carry the day and receive massive support from allies such as China who also need to protect their interests in Marange and the entire sector.
“Zimbabwe is now experiencing a resource curse and it will be very difficult to placate the country out of this circus,” he said.
The new leader would obviously have a strong interest in Marange as well continue with a system (if any) that keeps the party’s wheels well oiled with diamonds revenue, given a barrage of sanctions they are receiving from the West.
Succession battle
The battle to succeed Mugabe had been for long said to be between the current defence minister, Emmerson Mnangagwa and vice president Joyce Mujuru.
Mnangagwa was viewed by many as “brutal” and “worse” than Mugabe.
The Tehran Times of Iran recently said that the Zimbabwean leader had entered into a ‘gentleman’s agreement’ to hand over power to 65-year old Mnangagwa, who had been in Iran recently drumming up support for ZANU PF in the next elections.
However, Mnangagwa’s party position does not qualify him to receive the baton from Mugabe, should he call it quits or die in office.
Mujuru on the other hand was more likely to succeed Mugabe given her senior position in the party and government.
However, under the country’s constitution, the vice president who most recently served as acting president would become a caretaker for 90 days, said Lovemore Madhuku, a legal expert from the University of Zimbabwe.
"After the 90 days, parliament sits as the electoral college to appoint a new president who then completes the term," he said.
The current parliament was dominated by the Movement for Democratic Change of Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai making it unclear if a Zanu-PF candidate could win.
Mujuru would likely be more reform minded and more acceptable by the West, as shown recently in a leaked US diplomatic cable.
Her husband who died in an inferno last year had a stake in River Ranch diamond mine, and she would likely ask for transparency in Marange.
An empowerment law that compels foreign companies to surrender 51 percent of their shareholdings to black natives would likely remain in place given that the government had already formed equal partnerships with foreign firms in Marange.
The worst case scenario in the event of Mugabe’s departure would be a clash over the control of the diamond fields by members of the state security and those aligned to Zanu PF.
Such a clash would see Marange diamonds banned by the Kimberley Process, therefore reducing levels of supply on the international market, especially India.
The impact of such a move would likely be an increase in diamond prices, as the flooding of cheap Marange diamonds in India was pushing prices downwards.
Indian traders said Zimbabwe diamonds were available at $40 per carat, which was considered cheap compared to other sources where they were sold for $100 per carat.
About 11 million carats of Marange diamonds were expected to flood the Indian market this year while 30 percent of the diamond pieces currently manufactured in Surat were Zimbabwean stones.
With Mugabe returning home “fit”, all this would remain hypothetical, and besides wishing one dead is simply inhumane.
Mathew Nyaungwa, Editor in Chief of the African Bureau, Rough&Polished
